The decision by Governor Schwarzenegger to oppose Proposition 82 shouldn’t surprise anyone. The fact that he distanced himself from the announcement by leaving it to a campaign spokeswoman to deliver the news shouldn’t be that surprising either. The only surprise is that it took so long.
Way back in 2005, Rob Reiner’s ballot initiative to raise taxes to pay for pre-school programs 
looked like a pretty sure bet to pass. Taxing the wealthy is a proven vote-getter (for ballot initiatives, not candidates, Mr. Angelides,) Everybody loves pre-school. And Reiner seemed to be on track to putting together a stem cell-ish coalition to fund and pass it. California’s business community leaders announced their opposition, a number of existing preschool providers warned of its harm to their existing programs, and policy analysts began to point out that the initiative would subsidize preschool for the children of middle-class and upper-class parents already paying for preschool out of their own pockets. But the poll numbers for Prop 82’s passage remained strong.
When allegations arose that the First 5 organization was spending tax dollars in order to further political goals, Reiner could have apologized. He could have joined the calls for an investigation. He could have promised to lead the effort to make sure the organization he chaired was above reproach. Instead, he remained defiant, arguing that nothing could possibly be wrong as long as the money was being spent on behalf of his own definition of helping California’s children.
As a result of the controversy, public support for the initiative dropped to a point where Reiner became a political liability for Schwarzenegger. So first the governor forced his friend to resign from his First 5 chairmanship. Now he’s opposing Reiner’s initiative, freeing up his donor base to fund the campaign against Prop 82. If the governor’s advisors thought the initiative had even the slightest chance of passing, Arnold would have stayed neutral. But it’s going down, and the governor is getting out of the way to let it fall.
There will be plenty of time after Proposition 82’s defeat to weigh the policy pros and cons of the initiative. But the primary cause for its defeat will be Rob Reiner’s hubris.