Busby, Bilbray Headed to Runoff in California Special Election
Wednesday, April 12
ENCINITAS, Calif. — With only provisional and absentee ballots still to be counted, it appeared former Rep. Brian Bilbray (R) could be headed back to Congress later this spring — if he can get by Democrat Francine Busby in a June 6 runoff to replace the jailed and disgraced Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th district.
As the candidates await the tally of those approximately 10,000 ballots, first-time campaigner Eric Roach — a multimillionaire who bankrolled his race to the tune of at least $2 million — was a close second to Bilbray among the Republicans with 14.46 percent of the vote to Bilbray’s 15.15 percent. The closest Republican to either of them was former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, with 7.45 percent.
Busby finished a strong first, collecting 43.92 percent of the vote in the heavily Republican northern San Diego County district. Under California’s rules for filling open Congressional seats before a regularly scheduled general election, the top vote-getter from each political party advances to a runoff if the leading candidate fails to secure 50 percent-plus one of the vote.
Just two weeks ago, Busby’s own polling showed her at 39 percent, though she obviously benefited from a deep Republican field that spent its time bashing each other rather than her. Only since late last week did the Democrat encounter any resistance, with the National Republican Congressional Committee dropping more than $300,000 in the race for a huge television ad buy and a direct-mail hit.
“Tonight, voters confirmed what I have been saying for months: This race is not about Democrats or Republicans, it is about changing the way Washington works. A bipartisan group of voters in the 50th District sent a powerful message for change tonight. They said that they are fed up with business as usual and want a representative and a Congress that is committed to honesty and integrity,” Busby said in a statement released just after 12:30 a.m. PDT.
“I am so excited about the June 6th election – it will provide an opportunity for voters of the 50th District to say enough is enough.”
Busby has more than $100,000 in the bank, an amount she stockpiled anticipating a runoff campaign.
For Republicans, the immediate issue is whether they will unify behind their top finisher in Tuesday’s election.
Now that he appears to be the party’s only remaining candidate, Bilbray will have the get-out-the-vote muscle of the San Diego County Republican Party behind him, as well as the full attention of party strategists as he seeks to keep what should be a reliable Republican district in the GOP column.
But because of the peculiar circumstances of the runoff, both Busby and her Republican opponent also will be running, on June 6, for their respective political party’s nomination for the November general election. That election also will include what looks to be a competitive Democratic primary for the right to challenge Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). California’s filing deadline was last month, so all candidates running in this special election had to declare for the regular June 6 primary if they hoped to serve past December of this year in the event that they won on Tuesday. Theoretically, any of the Republicans on the regular June 6 ballot could keep running, though Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) predicted the losing candidates would fall in line behind Tuesday’s winner.
“We expect to have party unity,” said Issa, while attending Bilbray’s election night party at the Del Mar Marriott. Issa, a Bilbray supporter, represents a neighboring district and acted as an unofficial adviser to the former Congressman’s campaign.
After Bilbray, Roach and Kaloogian, the Republicans who finished with at least 1 percent of the vote dropped in the following order: state Sen. Bill Morrow, 5.39 percent; wealthy businessman Alan Uke, 4 percent; wealthy businessman Richard Earnest, 2.15 percent; Bill Hauf, 1.59 percent; former National Football League player Scott Turner, 1.43 percent.
April 12th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Haven’t seen a story declaring Harman the winner in the 35th state senate race, but proportionate to the number of absentees/provisionals left to be counted in each race, he’s in better shape than Bilbray. With the support Harman got from key Democrats over their own party’s candidate, I think it’s clear that Harkey got a majority of the Republican vote, though it can’t be established officially with ballots not designated by party. Roach probably finished first among Republicans in the 50th CD, though with Democrats sticking more firmly with their candidate in that race, that’s not as clear as in the 35th SD.