"If I had to guess, Democrat Francine Busby will be voting for Brian Bilbray this Tuesday, because that is whom she despirately hopes to run against – the candidate who makes this seat the must vulnerable to a GOP loss." – Jon Fleischman, Publisher of the FlashReport.
In California’s 50th Congressional District, the primary for special election to replace the disgraced and now-imprisoned Randy "Duke" Cunningham will take place in just three days. National attention will be paid to the outcome of this race. After all, no politician in memorable history has disgraced the office of Congress more flagrantly than Cunningham did, and add to it that as a special election, it is the only Congressional race being voted on in the country this Tuesday.
Of particular interest has been the activity surrounding the campaign of Democrat candidate 
Francine Busby (pictured to the left). It’s actually pretty surprising given the overwhelming GOP registration in this House seat that includes some of the most "safe Republican" zip codes in America. Recent polls indicate the Busby is likely to end up with a higher percentage of the final vote than she should — if she we were just pulling Democrat votes. Nationally there are liberal groups that see enough of an opportunity here that Busby is attracting funds from around the country. Similarly, the National Republican Party is also concerned enough they they made a substantial "anti-Busby" television media buy going into the last few days.
It is surprising that Busby has shown such strong numbers — the conventional wisdom would normally be that given the lack of competition on the Democratic side of this primary, that the vibrant and vocal and high-profile donnybrook for who will be the eventual GOP nominee should not only be tying down all of the Republican voters as they seek to select a standard-bearer, but given the ‘open’ nature of this primary (any voters can vote for any candidates, regardless of their party registration) many Democrats should be ‘crossing-over’ to vote in the Republican primary. Clearly this is not happening.
If I had to guess, Democrat Francine Busby will be voting for Brian Bilbray this Tuesday, because that is whom she despirately hopes to run against – the candidate who makes this seat the must vulnerable to a GOP loss.
It is the dynamics of this particular race at this particular time with the actions of the specific former-occupant of this House seat that make the quest of former Congressman-turned-federal lobbyist Brian Bilbray a tough one for not only himself, but for the Republican Party. Conventional wisdom would be that a moderate GOPer like Bilbray, who both in ideology and temperament is to the left of the other Republicans clustered at top of the large field of candidates, would be pulling a tremendous amount of cross-over votes. He, more so than a Roach, a Morrow, or a Kaloogian, would attract votes due to his moderate-liberal views and voting record on key social issues. But this does not seem to be the case. Why is this?
Let me first say that in no way am I trying to imply or infer that Brian Bilbray is an unethical person,
or would commit a criminal act. But that having been said, politics is often about perception. There is simply no getting around the fact that Bilbray is a lobbyist, and a part of the ‘club’ of Washington insiders.
I believe that of any of the leading GOP contenders for the party’s nomination, Brian Bilbray (pictured to the right) represents the most risk for Republicans losing the 50th District in the June run-off election. There is no getting around the fact that he is a federal lobbyist by profession at a time when if you "Google" lobbyist, all you get are photos, stories and links to disgraced criminal uber-lobbyist Jack Abramoff (pictured to the left). He also represents the 
Congressional ‘status quo’ at a time when Republicans in Congress have squandered an opportunity to reign in federal spending – and in fact have presided over a 33% growth in federal spending since 1994 (part of which took place when Bilbray was in Congress). These combine into powerful tools for a Busby campaign in the June election.
Separate from the pragmatic reasons why I think that Bilbray is a poor-standard bearer for the GOP at this time in this particular seat, I would also add as an ideological aside as a passionate Republican who has been very unhappy with the massive growth in federal spending the past decade, that with the eyes of the country watching the results of this primary, the election of the ‘insider candidate’ of the Beltway (most readily symbolized by the fact that he proudly lists the endorsement of House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas on his website — Thomas, who gave us the Medicare-Part D debacle and is known as the "King of Pork") it would be an unfortunate message sent to the political watchers – especially the House GOP leadership.
Don’t get me wrong, should Bilbray ultimately become the Congressman, I would be clinging to private assurances from some friends that he was only so moderate before because he used to represent such a swing-district, and will hope for a new Brian Bilbray. But I am cynical enough about politics to not expect someone to change like that. And I also think that there is an opportunity to make a strong statement in this election – a statement that isn’t made with a Bilbray victory — not because of who Brian Bilbray is, but because of what he does. We don’t need the GOP standard-bearer in this seat to be a lobbyist or the sweetheart of a GOP majority that is comfortable with big government — we need someone who will have the gravitas to advocate for ethical-cleanup and, more importantly, will join the efforts of conservative Republicans in the Republican Study Committee and take on the House leadership and who rightly see those GOPers in Congress who won’t cut spending as a bigger problem than the Democrats. Having a majority means there is a responsibility to do something with it.
So, if you know people in the 50th Congressional District, pass along the message, Bilbray may be a nice guy — but he is the candidate who makes the seat the most vulnerable to a June Busby victory and also, of the front-runners, is the least able to go back to Washington, D.C. and use this special election as an opportunity to steer House Republicans in the direction of fiscal restraint.
April 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Jon’s passionate analysis misses one key point – all the polls that have tested GOP match-ups with Busby clearly show that Brian Bilbray is the strongest candidate for the Republican Party. A Busby “guilt-by-association” campaign, as suggested by Jon, won’t work against a candidate like Bilbray who has 25 years of public service in San Diego under his belt and who has the support of the most respected leaders in San Diego, including Father Joe Carroll, Congressman Darrell Issa, Mayor Jerry Sanders, Governor Pete Wilson, District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis, and Sheriff Bill Kolender, not the mention the National Border Patrol agents.
April 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
So the race has come down to two Republicans: Liberal Brian Bilbray endorsed by Pete Wilson and conservative Eric Roach endorsed by former congressman Ron Packard.
I think the voters of the 50th CD will be able to figure this one out!
April 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I see how well Busby is doing in the polls, and I assume that she is not getting cross-over votes from strong conservative-values voters. Clearly her cross-over Republican voters are liberal-moderate Republicans who should be right up Bibray’s alley. If he cannot get them now, what says he will garner their support for June?
April 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
The polls do. Every one to date that I know of has shown Brian running stronger against Busby than the rest of the GOP field. The reason is that the key to this district are the DTS voters who make up 22% of the electorate. Remember, this district is 44R, 30D and 22DTS. Bilbray is very competitive with Busby among the DTS voters who, while they may vote in lower percentages in the Special Election, will vote in much higher numbers in June and especially November.
April 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
It should also be noted that Bilbray always had to run a little “greener” because of his district, the old 49th. As Jen Jacobs once noted re: SD city council races, coastal voters, regardless of partisan affiliation, vote greener than similar electorates in any other geographic area. That will help him in a runoff. Three of the four top GOP candidates, including Bilbray IMHO, would make fine standard bearers.
April 9th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I guess my criteria for a ‘standard bearer’ has become more refined as we are most of the way through the seventh term of a GOP majority in the House of Representatives and we have seen massive growth (33%) in federal spending during that time. Any standard bearer should be openly questioning the failure of our Republican Leadership to either (A) reduce the size and scope of the federal government or (B) put forth a consistent stream of up or down votes on that policy agenda on the House floor so that the frustration can be aimed at a small group of moderates. Failure to do either of these means the House Leadership is failing us – and a “standard bearer” should be decrying this failure as a major part of their campaign rhetoric.
Sending a “reliable vote” for House Leadership back to DC is what we don’t want. We want to send back someone who will join the Republican Study Committee (the conservative caucus within the GOP majority) who will start to put HEAT on the leadership to achieve the two objectives stated at the opening of this comment.
If Republicans don’t achieve some meaningful reductions in government spending this session, we deserve the low-GOP turnout that follows.
Promises made must be kept.
April 10th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Jon, I agree with you – and I promise you that you can’t be more disillusioned or disgusted with our party than I am. Personally, I think it’ll do the Beltway elites (and the country) a world of good for the GOP to lose one or both houses in November. But I also think Bilbray will be OK in the district he’s running in, because that district will demand more conservative governance than his old one did. Bilbray will adapt to his new district, just like he did his old one.
We may not find it desirable for a legislator to vote his constituents’ preferences vs. his own conscience, but I don’t think that’ll usually be a bad thing in this district.
April 10th, 2006 at 12:00 am
What is the motivating factor for a representative in a safe seat like this to vote his constituents’ preferences? Will they vote him out if he doesn’t? Of couse not! IMHO, if Bilbray is elected, leadership opportunities will motivate him which means he will vote the way the leadership tells him too.
Bilbray has always been a moderate and always will be. And like it or not, he is the epitome of the beltway.
With respect to the list of endorsement, with the exception of Issa, they seem to be a who’s who list for the California Republican League.
The one thing we should all keep in mind though is whoever the nominee ends up being, we need to support him fully. Packard was able to win his write-in in the 80’s after a losing the primary in a big field like this, but the conservative OC assembly seat I live in was won by a Democrat for a term in the 70’s because of fighting within the party. If Bilbray wins the nomination it might be easy for one of the conservatives to say, 60% of the Republican vote went to consevatives and Bilbray only got 20%, or something like that. Here and now, all the candidates should publicly state now that they will not mount a write-in campaign regardless of the outcome. Because if Busby does win this for any reason, the media will have a field day with it and start talking about the national implications…blah, blah, blah.
April 10th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dwight, good points. I’ve been wrong before, and, well, I’ll be wrong again. I’ve made your case (vs. mine) in that Bilbray is an opportunist, if nothing else.
I do have one disagreement with your caveat above, which I’ll share privately when I return your call.
April 10th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Dave should be able to back up his contention that Brian Bilbray is the “strongest” candidate to face Busby.
Perhaps some facts would make Jon’s case even more salient. Respected pollester Bob Moore recently tracked voter attitudes for Eric Roach in the 50th CD. In his latest tracking survey before Election Day, Bob makes some interesting observations:
“Among Republican voters Roach leads with 21%, followed by Brian Bilbray (at 15%), Howard Kaloogian (8%), Bill Morrow (7%), Alan Uke (4%) and Bill Hauf (3%). No other candidate receives more than 1% of the Republican vote. Roach’s lead is bolstered by the fact that he is the leader among self-described “very” Conservative Republicans and high propensity Republican voters. Perhaps, most impressive for a newcomer is his lead among hard-core Republican voters. Among these self-described “very” Conservative Republicans, Roach is supported by 25%, followed by Howard Kaloogian (with 15%), Brian Bilbray (8%) and Bill Morrow (10%).
Roach’s lead today is due in large part to perceptions that he is the Republican candidate most likely to address the immigration issue, his background as a newcomer who will shake up the status quo in Washington, and his Conservative views. In fact, Republican voters are more likely to recall Roach’s views on each of these issues than those views of Bilbray, Kaloogian or any other GOP candidate. This is remarkable in light of Bilbray’s efforts focusing on the immigration issue and the credentials of long-time Conservative activist Howard Kaloogian.
Next, in three runoff election match-ups, the survey shows Roach is the only Republican candidate with a numerical lead over Democrat Francine Busby today.”
Bilbray’s misleading smear campaign will not endear him to the conservative voters of the 50th CD – nor will trotting out the endorsements of the San Diego liberal elites.
If the recent polls are any indication (http://www.datamar.net/pdf/CD500806specialelection.pdf), the supporters of the other candidates must decide if they want to throw away their votes or to make a difference. The choice on Tuesday will come down to conservative Eric Roach or liberal Brian Bilbray.
Eric Roach has the talent, the track record, and the integrity to get the job done. So, if the voters of the 50th CD really want to change the way things are run in Washington, the really is only one clear choice – Eric Roach.