As some can imagine, I received several emails and calls from folks upset the CRA “hit” Bilbray is his race to replace convicted Congressman Cunningham. Many have suggested that we are not allowed to speak ill of a GOP candidate and cite Ronald Reagan’s “11th Commandment”
Historically, I’m glad Reagan challenged the powers to be and ran against an incumbent Republican in 1976. Principle is always more important than being “nice”
CRA hit Bilbray for one reason. His nomination jeopardizes Republicans keeping the seat. I know many say it is impossible to lose this seat. History tells us differently. Democrats lost a safe seat when the Powerful Dan Rostenkowski had ethics problems. Congressman from both parties has been upset when corruption is on the table.
The 50th district is one of the most educated districts in California. Everyone knows why we are having this election. Cunningham is a crook.
Bilbray has his own issues. See our piece here. And of course he is a lobbyist. He spent lots of money and time trying to avoid that designation. Everyone knows it. Is our message in the general election really going to be “Cunningham was corrupt, Send a Lobbyist to Clean it up”? That is a recipe for the heavily financed Democrat Busby to eek out a victory.
Finally, Bilbray is no conservative. His voting record is clearly “moderate”. I would say liberal. This will not help Republican turnout. Conservatives are mad at the GOP Congress. Will they come out for more of the same type of big spending Republican? I don’t think so.
Look at what Richard Rider, Chair of the San Diego Tax Fighters
“Since this is a rare open primary where people can cross party lines to vote, the possibility for mischief is very real. Busby will win the Dem nomination in a walk. So the Dem leaders might decide to encourage their faithful to cross over and vote for the least electable GOP frontrunner, hoping that Busby can win in the runoff. Or they might back RINO Brian Bilbray — since he’s a quasi-Democrat, and will not be popular in the runoff with conservative GOP voters. For Dems, Bilbray’s nomination is literally a "win-win" choice.
If Bilbray does win the nomination, the GOP leaders and voters should consider their own gonzo strategy at that point. GOP voters should vote for Libertarian Paul King or Democrat Busby in the June general election — and again in November assuming Bilbray wins the November GOP nomination.
If Bilbray wins the general, this RINO incumbent will be our Congresscritter for the next 20+ years. But if Busby wins in this strongly GOP district, she can be easily unseated two years later by Republicans getting behind a strong conservative candidate in 2008.”
This kind of stuff will happen to Bilbray. Our endorsed Candidate Bill Morrow or another conservative won’t have that baggage or the lobbyist baggage.
Bilbray either loses in April we lose a seat in Congress.
March 27th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I have to disagree with Mike. In fact, polling shows that Brian Bilbray is far and away the Republican candidate who will run the strongest against the Democrat, Francene Busby.
The two top issues in the 50th district are illegal immigration and government spending, and Bilbray is the candidate best positioned to take advantage of those two issues. Brian’s record is well known and respected by Republican voters in San Diego. He held a democrat congressional seat for six years and was a key part of the Contract with America class of 1994. Finally, Newt Gingrich, Darrell Issa, Dan Lungren, Ed Royce and other well known conservatives who have worked with Brian are supporting him, as is federal Border Patrol association.
March 27th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Mr. Bilbray represented a very moderate swing district while in Congress the first time, and he was a good fit — for that district. Not necessarily this one, which is more conservative. I will give him credit for voting to impeach Clinton, a vote that probably cost him his re-election in 2000 and which represented a moment of great personal courage. But Bill Morrow is probably closer in line philosophically with the Republican majority in this district.
March 28th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I have to agree with Mr. Foy. Bilbray has always been a moderate and he represented a moderate congressional district during his terms in congress. In a fluke, Lynn Schenk was elected in 92′ during the “year of the (liberal) women”. Unfortunately for Alan Uke, he couldn’t get enough qualified signatures to get himself on the ballot…otherwise that would have been his seat.
The 49th moved to the left throughout Bilbray’s term and eventually he just couldn’t overcome the odds.
Bilbray fit the moderate demographics of the old 49th but I don’t think he fits the more conservative leanings of the current 50th. CRA’s hit is pretty harsh but true conservatives need to know that he is not the crowned prince. Unfortunately there are so many qualified conservatives in the race, he will probably end up winning.
With all due respect to Richard Rider, conservatives and moderates alike should rally around the winner of the primary (regardless of who it is) and work to bring stability back to seat.
It would be nice to see some in this race pour some money into Bilbray’s old seat and try to knock out Susan Davis. I believe that is still more of a winnable seat than Loretta Sanchez’ seat we talk about every election cycle up here.
If Bilbray does come up short, maybe he should consider a rematch.
March 28th, 2006 at 12:00 am
Have I been reading the same polls as everyone else? Bilbray has consistently ranks as the only candidate who can beat Busby in a runoff election. We (Republicans) shouldn’t be so convinced that the demographics of this district will guarantee us victory on June 6th regardless of the candidate we select.
March 28th, 2006 at 12:00 am
I hate to disagree with my buddy Erik, but none of the public polls do any sort of ballot simulation to gauge whether he’ll have a shot after the DCCC rams half a mil in “HE’S A LOBBYIST” ads down our throats.
I believe it was that point that Mike Spence originally was making.