The 50th Congressional District
Two weeks from tomorrow, there will be Congressional special election taking place in California. Actually, with absentee voting being such a large percentage of votes cast in special election, it 
would almost be more accurate to say that is a special election "underway" right now. The race has captured the national political spotlight because it is the race to fill out the unexpired term of former GOP Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham who is now one of the most infamous criminals in the annals of Congress. The millions of dollars that he took in exchange for directing government contracts into the hands of his ‘benefactors’ has sent Duke to jail for many years, and now voters on San Diego’s "Gold Coast" need to choose a new representative. There are a ton of Republicans running for the seat — thus making the amount of votes necessary to clintch the GOP nomination relatively small.
The front runner for this seat is moderate former Congressman Brian Bilbray (pictured above, to the left), who has claimed many endorsements both locally and from Washington, D.C. Bilbray would be a ‘reliable’ vote for House Leadership, but I wouldn’t look or expect for him to have changed a lot from when he was in the House back in the 90’s — which is to say that he was not a ‘passionate’ Member of Congress. My eyebrows would 
raise considerably if he were to join the conservative Republican Study Committee and actually lead the fight to shrink the size and scope of the federal government. I could be wrong — but I can only use his past service as a reliable indicator. The group of GOPers that are close to Bilbray in polling include businessman Eric Roach, State Senator Bill Morrow (pictured to the right), and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian. One travesty here is that any of these three candidates, if elected to Congress, would absolutely be instant conservative leaders, and each of them possess the passion to take on government growth — even if it is being presided over by permissive House Leadership that if it wants to shrink government, isn’t getting that message to this website publisher. Also a factor in the race is businessman Alan Uke. Uke, along with Roach, have been very successful businessmen, though Uke seems to be much more of a moderate GOPer than the conservative Roach.
At the end of the day, though, attacks on Bilbray in the final two weeks of the campaign are likely to notch-up (and already have with a CRA ‘hit’ as well as a ‘comparison piece’ newsletter from Roach that hit Bilbray) — but they may be a little too late. Bilbray’s consultant is FR friend Dave Gilliard, who is an expert when it comes to absentee ballot campaigning. You can be sure that Bilbray has been waging an all-out effort for these early voters. The FR handicap two weeks out is that Bilbray still holds a lead – though not unsurmountable. His biggest advantage is that as he gets roughed up here in the homestretch, voters who peel off of him will divide between many opponents. Bilbray doesn’t need all of the votes, just one more than his nearest GOP opponent.
Busby, the lone Democrat, has no shot in this overwhelmingly GOP district, come June.
Look for further analysis on this race as we close on election day. There is an extensive write-up on this race in the San Francisco Chronicle today, and it is featured "above the fold" on the main page of today’s FR. There is also a story on the ‘other’ Special Election taking place on April 11, in Orange County – the race for the 35th State Senate seat. It is to fill the unexpired term of John Campbell, who was elected to Congress in previous special election. It is a two horse race between moderate Assemblyman Tom Harmon and conservative Dana Point City Councilman Diane Harkey. We’ll be writing more about this race, but check out LA Times writer Jean Pasco’s take on the race on the main page.
Battin rises to the occasion after the Gallegly debacle
State Senator (and good FR friend) Jim Battin looked at the craziness surrounding the filing debacle of Congressman Elton Gallegly, over in Ventura County, and decided that there was something that he could do about it. Or to be more accurate, that there were a couple of changes in state law that could make sure that the kind of craziness that took place can be avoided in the future. He has introduced two reforms in a piece of legislation — the first says that if an incumbent Congressman does not file for re-election, then the filing period would extend another week (this is the case now for state races), and also allowing anyone who files for office to withdraw their candidacy up to the deadline for filing for office. The feature column on the main page today is from Battin, and worth a read!
Have a great day!
Jon
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