This writer is bearish on the Governor’s chances this November and I have written extensively about his struggles. In today’s Fresno Bee I made some comments about why our GOP base is depressed. Its quite simple, and not entirely Arnold’s fault.
First, the federal budget deficit and immigration reform are not being addressed. Bush and Congress have created this mess and are failing, while in the majority, to tackle other problems. This negatively impacts the passions of Republican voters in California – and hurts Arnold.
Second, Arnold has allowed State spending to careen only marginally less out of control than under Gray Davis. He has lost his moral authority as a fiscal conservative and doesn’t appear to care. We understand that he would never run his companies this way, yet he runs the Government with structural deficits. Where is the business acumen?
Third, the base doesn’t like borrowing and spending and this is the centerpiece of Arnold’s program. We view borrowing and spending as neither visionary nor courageous. We excoriate Democrats for engaging in the same behavior and will not hypocritically support this behavior just because a Republican is behind it. My friend Alan Autry, Mayor of Fresno, should know better. We know the need is there, but we also instinctively know that we cannot afford a massive borrowing program.
Fourth, we were demoralized last summer at the bludgeoning he took by the unions and the lack of a coherent response. Nothing depresses the base more than our guy getting creamed and seemingly unwilling or unable to fight back. We had four great issues on the ballot and an experienced political team in the horseshoe and we got schooled – again.
So, this is why the GOP base is depressed. Now, what to do about it? What is the message? If he doesn’t find a message to cobble together a coalition of conservative and center – right independents, he gets crushed in November. So here goes:
"I understand why you sent me here. Do you see this pen? I will use it to veto any legislation that harms the economy. You sent me here to keep you working and fix the budget. I will use this pen to protect you."
"I will be the adult supervision in Sacramento. I will never let them do what they did to you under Gray Davis – nearly ruin the State."
"We need to fund infrastructure with bonds, but we cannot issue bonds with a structural budget deficit. Therefore, I will deliver a surplus budget to the Legislature in June and devote the surplus to paying for infrastructure bonds."
"Nurses, teachers, cops and firefighters are the pillars of our society, but if their politics prevail California will be bankrupt. I ask you to respect their professions but reject their ideas. They will harm the State if succesful."
"You cannot trust Westly or Angelides as Governors, they cannot help themselves. They will ruin the State again. California needs divided Government in order to survive."
"I have big ideas for California, but this is not about me, its about you. Therefore, I will focus only on California’s fiscal health and economy because this is what you sent me here to do."
There you go. Simple messages. No bold agenda. He doesn’t need one to win. He needs to define the unions – now. They will surely be defining him by this summer. Don’t cower and don’t worry about making them mad because they are going to dog you all year so make them pay.
That’s it. Cheap, free advice. Watch how the base energized around a Governor that fights back, returns to fiscal conservatism and defines his adversaries as the out of control children that they are. We will get in the trenches again for you Governor. Are you listening?