[UPDATE: According to sources this poll was actually conducted LAST SUMMER just days after Umberg’s affair was exposed in the press. Subsequent polling shows Umberg BEATING Correa by almost 2-to-1.]
Dick Rosengarten reports in the this weeks edition of his CALPEEK newsletter on CA politics that OC Supervisor Lou Correa is trouncing Assemblyman Tom Umberg in the race for the Democrat nomination in the 34th Senate District (Central Orange County including Santa Ana). According to Rosengarten, J. Moore Methods, Inc. (James Moore) a Dem pollster conducted the poll among 34th Senate District Democrats on behalf of State Senate President Don Perata.
UMBERG 19%
I find it hard to believe that these are first run ballot test numbers. A sitting county supervisor (former legislator) vs. a member of the state assembly (present and past) should be a lot closer together. Umberg has had some really bad press in recent months but it will take half a dozen pieces of direct mail from Correa or an independent expenditure to educate the voters on those issues.
J. Moore Methods is a respected research organization so I don’t doubt their results, but I expect that these numbers are from a subsequent ballot test after an informed ballot (a series of questions that highlight the positive and negative aspects of the candidates backgrounds).
If anyone has any details on the poll, email (adam@flashreport.org) them to me, I will keep the source confidential.