Today, in what was a widely anticipated announcement, conservative Assemblyman Ted Gaines official entered the special election race for the First State Senate District. Last month, after a lengthy battle with cancer, State Senator Dave Cox passed away. Governor Schwarzenegger quickly called a special election in this very Republican district. The "primary" for the special election will take place Tuesday, November 2nd (consolidated with the General Election) with the runoff (if no candidate get’s over half of the total vote) to take place in January.
There is no doubt that Gaines is the instant front-runner in the race to succeed Cox. By all of the standard measures, Gaines is a very strong candidate. His 4th Assembly District has around 34% of the State Senate District’s likey voters within it (Assemblywoman Alyson Huber’s district comes in a distant second with around 20% of her district overlapping). Gaines has been a strong fundraiser, already posting big bucks in his account for a strong GOTV program. Finally, and perhaps most significantly in this district, Gaines has a solid voting record on core issues that matter to the Republican voters in the First District. Most significantly on the issue of higher taxes, which Gaines has opposed at every turn.
It is widely assumed that term-limited Assemblyman Roger Niello will officially announce his candidacy for this seat soon (if he hasn’t already). But Niello will have a big hurdle to overcome — in fact, it my ultimately be too high to get over — which would be his decisive vote to enact the largest tax increase in the history of California (in fact the largest single tax increased passed by any state legislature — ever!). As this special election takes place, First District voters are still paying the $16 billion dollars in higher sales, income and car taxes (as well as a slashing of the dependent child tax credit) that, but for Niello’s vote, would have not been enacted. Niello also vote to place on the ballot and campaigned to pass Proposition 1A last year that would have extended all of these taxes for two more years. Voters overwhelmingly rejected 1A, including the voters in this Senate District. Niello is a very affable, charismatic fellow. But his credibility gap with primary voters make him a serious underdog out the gate.
Below is a short video that Gaines recorded at his announcement event. You can find out more about his candidacy here.
I received a call from Gaines earlier today — very excited about his candidacy, "Since my election to the Assembly in 2006, I have worked hard to bring common sense conservative principles to the State Capitol. I will not support any tax increase on the people or businesses of California and I will never compromise my principles just to ‘get a deal done’ or move the process along."
Of course Gaines has a "secret weapon" in his campaign — six able-bodied children! Rumor has it that he has them all signed up for aggressive precinct walking schedules…
August 12th, 2010 at 12:00 am
I wouldn’t be so quick to annoint Gaines as the frontrunner. While I don’t have a dog in this fight, there are a number of dynamics that could tilt this in Niello’s favor. First, this isn’t a typical Republican primary. It’s a special election, which means that Democrats and others will be able to cross over and vote in the GOP primary. Unless a strong Democratic candidate is able to firm up the Dem vote (unlikely) a significant number of them will vote in the much more significant GOP primary, probably voting for the more moderate Niello. In addition, the benifit Niello recieves from his family cannot be underestimated. Anyone who lives in the Sacramento area (including most of Ted Gaines district) knows the name Niello from his brother’s prolific tv and radio ads from the car dealerships. I would even hazard a guess and say that Niello’s name ID is the same or higher in AD 4 than Gaines, if only by confusion with his family.
Also, remember that Roger Niello never signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge. That is significant – while he voted to raise taxes, he didn’t go back on his word as the five others did. It is still bad, not not as much so.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Two mail hit pieces is all that is needed for Gaines to win. One like a brochure showing himself as a saint and photos of his six kids and family in the center spread.
Second piece that proclaims:”Niello Raised Your Taxes $16 Billion Dollars..and now he would like your approval to move into a double sized Senate Office Suite. Are You Kidding??”
One set of robo calls describing the pain suffered by the tax hike and then describe what some of luxury upgrades to his office would be as a reward for helping the State lift $16 Billion Dollars out their wallet.
That outta do it.