Republican Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee came oh-so-close to winning the special election in State Senate District 15 outright tonight — capturing 49.7% of the vote. However, because Blakeslee did not win an outright majority, he will be in an August run-off that will feature himself, Democrat John Laird, and two third party candidates — a Libertarian and an independent. Blakeslee is well poised for an August victory, but it will be an expensive endeavor, to be sure. But given how close the Democrats are in the State Senate to the 2/3rds vote to raise taxes, it will be a very expensive loss for all California taxpayers should Laird somehow prevail.
You can read a lot more detail on the results in this Capitol Weekly story.
(I guess one should add the caveat that there are invariably some absentee and provisional ballots outstanding, so it’s not impossible for Blakeslee to close in on a majority — it’s just not probable.)
June 23rd, 2010 at 12:00 am
You are probably right, but Sam is tantalizingly close,
If my math is correct, he only needs to pick up a net 374 votes from all the late absentees and provisionals remaining to avoid a runoff.
June 23rd, 2010 at 12:00 am
Dana makes a great point. It ain’t over until all the votes are counted. It’s very conceivable that Sam takes the win at the end.
That said, if he doesn’t avoid the runoff, I can’t see any real scenario where the Democrats can make up the difference on General Election Day.
All the same candidates will appear on the General ballot and all the arguments and attacks have already been made. Nothing will change much and Blakeslee will win again.
What will change, however, is the money. Sam’s fundraising will jump significantly because of the big margin last night – with a lot of interests wanting to be with the expected winner. Conversely, I’d expect even some stalwart Democrat donors to shy away from Laird (why waste the money and antagonize the winner?).
Great win Sam – hope you don’t have to go through another election – but if you do, you’ll win it all again.