Yesterday, one week after the election, the Legislative Analyst Office released a report on California’s fiscal outlook. It reported that there was going to be a $25 billion deficit. Assembly Budget Committee Chairman, Assembly Phil Ting, a Democrat, told the press there was nothing to worry about, “last year,” he said, “the LAO reported there was going to be a deficit at this same time, and it turned out to be a record surplus.” That is a false statement. I use the harsh word “false” because it is easy verifiable (though no one in the press even made the effort to verify if it was true or false). Read last year’s fiscal outlook report (on November 17, 2021) and you will find the LAO predicted a more than $30 billion surplus, with surpluses into the future (whoops, that was wrong too).
Contrast that with my prediction made in the run up to the state budget last year, in an article I wrote on December 15, 2021 entitled “My Advice to Legislators: Don’t Rely on LAO Rosy Scenarios For A Budget Surplus.” In that article, I said: “History has shown that pre-election projections of large budget surpluses soon dissipate into record post-election deficits…” In fact, in that article, I compared and contrasted LAO’s rosy scenarios from 2000-2002, which led to record deficits in 2003-2004, and said: “For those who think there is no way this $31 billion surplus can turn into a deficit, it is important to note that the general fund expenditures are more than double what they were in the 2000-2003 period.” The 2021 LAO prediction for the 2023-24 didn’t smell right last year, and that prediction had one major parallel to 2002, the prediction of rosy scenarios then was made in the run up to the re-election campaign of then Governor Gray Davis in 2002, just like the rosy scenario prediction last year was made in the run up to the campaign of our Arrogant Lazy Authoritarian in Charge (ALAIC) Gavin Newsom.
Of course, the mainstream media reported last year’s rosy scenario, and praised the leadership of ALAIC Newsom, talking about how great he was, and how his competence has led to these record surpluses, just like those same media types did in the re-election campaign of Gray Davis. Is it just coincidence that the Democrat controlled LAO made the same predictions in 2002 that aided the Gray Davis campaign just like that they did in 2022 that aided Gavin Newsom campaign? I believed then, and said, these predictions were political hype disguised as “nonpartisan” reports. The press and the voters were duped again.
Guess who was right? The pre-election predictions of a surplus did turn into a post-election deficit. Was the pre-election prediction part of protecting the re-election of ALAIC Newsom and the Democrat majorities in the Legislature? The Democrats control the staff that makes the predictions, and these prediction insulated the Democrats from the criticism that would naturally result if the deficits were released before the election.
Assemblyman Ting already demonstrated he has no problem deceiving people with his historical revisionism, and the press has already demonstrated that they will report these false statements without any kind of fact check. (Have a Republican make these same kind of statements, and the press will suddenly discover their research skills). The 2002 falsehoods lead to a recall. What will happen this time? Will the political powers that be in Sacramento try to cover up their incompetence and profligate spending even more? Will the press continue to be the propaganda arm of the left wing of the Democrat party?
The deficit will be bigger than $25 billion. We will be told by the politicians that the budget can only be balanced by raising taxes. The propagandists in the press will report these statements as gospel truth, and the supermajorities of the Democrats will probably raise your taxes.
Gasoline prices already eat up an ungodly portion of your take home pay. Now the Democrats are going to make that take home pay even smaller.
We deserve the government we get.