Over 40 readers submitted guesses in another competitive contest to guess the June 3 election results.
Before I get to the winners, first the questions, the correct answers, and a little analysis. But, even before that, just a mention of what San Diego City Council candidate Chris Cate had to say when submitting his contest entry:
“First off, my life is complete now that I’m included in a Rostra election quiz!”
That pretty much sums up the entire meaning of life. Thanks, Chris.
The Results:
1. County Board of Supervisors, District 5 — Bill Horn or Jim Wood?
A softball to start? Apparently, as all but one respondent correctly guessed Bill Horn would win.
2. San Diego County District Attorney — Candidates Bob Brewer, Bonnie Dumanis, Terri Wyatt. There WILL be a November runoff election, True or False?
False. Dumanis wrapped up re-election in the primary. Yet, just over 50 percent of you thought this race would go to a runoff.
3. Mayor, City of Chula Vista — Which candidate will be the TOP vote getter, Pamela Bensoussan, Jerry Rindone or Mary Salas?
Salas ended up at the top of heap. Over 75 percent picked her correctly.
4. City Council District 2, City of San Diego — Candidates Sarah Boot, Jim Morrison, Mark Schwartz, Lorie Zapf. There WILL be a November runoff election, True or False?
False. Zapf also avoided a long year. A dead even split on this one, with half thinking the race would go to November.
5. City Council District 6, City of San Diego — Candidates Chris Cate, Jane Glasson, Carol Kim, De Le, Mitz Lee. Among those candidates, name the top TWO vote getters, IN ORDER. (It doesn’t matter if you think the race will be over in the primary, just answer the question. Both the names and the order must be correct.)
Cate finished first, with Kim second. Yet even with five candidates, close to 60 percent of you correctly picked the winners in that exact order. Nice job!
By the way, my guess is Cate liked the result here a little better than being mentioned in the contest. Jes’ sayin’.
6. San Diego County Assessor/Recorder County Clerk — Candidates Ernest Dronenburg, Jonathan Gordon, Susan Guinn, George Mantor. There WILL be a November runoff election, True or False?
False. Dronenburg wins it outright. About an even split here as well, just over half guessing the race would be locked up now.
7. Congress, District 53 — Seriously? Candidates Christina Bobb, John Campbell, Susan Davis, John Edwards, Joel Marchese, Jim Stieringer, Wayne True, Larry Wilske. Name the second place vote getter.
Out of a slew of choices, about 50 percent still correctly picked Wilske to make the runoff against Davis. They must think the GOP endorsement means something.
8. Prop H, Grossmont Healthcare District — Lease extension of Grossmont Hospital to Sharp HealthCare. I can hear you ask again, seriously? But you just knew I had to throw this one in the mix. This measure will get MORE than 80 percent of the vote, True or False?
True. 86.67 percent. (No spiking the ball, just the facts, even if it could be a record.) Less than half of those guessing thought over 80 percent possible. Sigh.
Tie-Breaker A (only if needed). Congress, District 52 — Since this race has caused the most discussion on Rostra, now’s your chance. Candidates Carl DeMaio, Kirk Jorgensen, Scott Peters, Fred Simon. Select the exact order of finish for all the candidates. Party doesn’t matter.
This may have been the dumbest tie-breaking question in the history of the contest. Nearly 75 percent guessed the resulting order of Peters, DeMaio, Jorgensen, and Simon. I don’t know what planet I was on making that a decider (nor what planet those of you not getting it correct were on). It’s a good thing there was one more question:
Tie-Breaker B (only if still needed). District Attorney — Pick the exact difference in percentage of the vote between Bob Brewer and Bonnie Dumanis. How you answered question 2 doesn’t matter. The candidates’ order of finish and individual percentages don’t matter. The final margin between the two is what is being asked. Answer to at least a tenth of a point, please.)
The difference between Dumanis and Brewer ended up at 20.23 percent. About one quarter of the guesses had it at less than six percent, with nearly half picking in the seven to 12 point range. Nine of you thought it would be higher than 16 percent.
Those with five correct initial answers (in order of their guesses being submitted):
Michael Hadland
Zack Brown
Geoff Patnoe
Bill Baber
Ray Palmucci
Chris Duggan
Six correct:
Michael Schwartz
Chris Cate
Mason Herron
John Kern
Sherry Hodges
Marc Schaefer
Ben Avey
Eddie Sprecco
Tony Krvaric
Steve Rider
It should be mentioned that of those, Schwartz, Avey and Sprecco all guessed within a couple of points of the final Dumanis-Brewer margin. In fact, Schwartz almost nailed it, guessing within .23 of the correct answer.
Seven correct:
Sage Naumann
Jordan Marks
Alex Bell (the one she missed wasn’t related to her boss, just for the record!)
T.J. Zane
So, with the tie-breakers in play and the margin of victory between Dumanis and Brewer at 20.23 percent on the final deciding question, it comes to this:
Third Place: Guessing 17.3 percent on the final question — Jordan Marks
Eight Correct:
What that means, of course, is only two entrants got all eight initial questions right!
Brad Barnum
Andy Berg
They both got the first tie-breaker, but only one can win:
Second Place – Brad Barnum
WINNER: Closest to the mark of 20.23 percent on the final tie breaker, guessing a 16.3 percent margin — Andy Berg
Congratulations, Andy! Bragging rights — and I’ll pick up an Albondigas lunch for you at some point in the future. I owe five past ones now, but I’m good for ‘em!
Thanks for another fun contest, to all of you. Congratulations to the winners!