This next week in the State Capitol will be an ugly one for taxpayers. Pretty much any legislation that could have brought relief has already been slaughtered in the policy committee process, where any meaningful legislation authored by a Republican was decimated with the efficiency of a shredding machine slicing and dicing a piece of paper. In the midst of all of the bad bills that each legislative chamber will attempt to pass, there are two that are particularly insidious. Assembly Bill 8 and Senate Bill 11 are almost identical bills that each contain a massive $2.3 billion car tax increase. Running along-side this column is one from Jon Coupal of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association that goes into the details of why these bills are very bad public policy. I’m going to write about why Republicans supporting these two bills is bad politically, both for those members who might be tempted to support the bills, and for the Republican Party itself, and crucial efforts to pick up GOP seats next year.
Virtually every Republican legislator ran for their office signing a written pledge not to raise taxes. And those that did not most assuredly still ran a campaign around the idea that taxes in Sacramento were too high. Which they are. In fact, we are a national leader in over-taxation — a dubious distinction to be sure. What kind of message does it send to their voters and to the volunteers and donors that helped them to get elected when it turns out that it was really a qualified opposition to higher taxes? That they oppose higher taxes except when a portion of the revenues they generate get redistributed, through the “magic” of big government, to another group of people?
Is there any doubt, by the way, that a Republican who goes up on a massive tax increase isn’t going to hear about it the next time they run for office? Perhaps higher office? If it’s not their Republican opponents who bring it up, don’t count out the Democrats (even though they will have supported it themselves — but they know that the Republican base vote opposes tax increases like this one). Remember what liberal Democrat Dave Jones did to former Assembly GOP Leader Mike Villines (who lost his leadership for supporting taxes) in their race for Insurance Commissioner? Jones ran radio spots attacking Villines for voting to raise taxes.
The top priority for Republicans, who are now enjoying super-minority status, should be bringing up GOP numbers in the legislature. In that regard, any Republicans voting for AB 8 or SB 11 are doing harm to the party both broadly, and at a very tactical level. Broadly Republicans need to demonstrate that they are the “adult supervision” and that it is essential for us to get our numbers up in order to keep the legislature from — raising taxes. Well, we certainly undermine that effort if the Democrats are able to say both in the media, as well as in mail pieces, that tax increases coming out of Sacramento are bipartisan. I can only imagine the fun that Governor Brown would have with this in his run for re-election…
But on a more basic, tactical level, it is important to remember that for these two bills to get to the Governor’s desk (as tax increases they require a two-thirds majority vote), it will require the votes of virtually every Democrat in the Senate (one can get a pass), and in the Assembly it will require the vote of every single Democrat. So on the Senate side, there is every reason to believe that Democrat Lou Correa, who campaigned for office opposing regressive tax increase and who did not support a similar bill last legislative session, will oppose this bill. If he does, that means that if Republicans are unified in their opposition, Democrat Kathleen Galgiani, who barely beat Republican Bill Berryhill last year, would be forced to vote for the tax by leadership. It would be very injurious in her reelection campaign. On the Assembly side, three Democrats sit in seats that Republicans hope (need) to contest next year – Rudy Salas in the Central Valley, Steve Fox in the High Desert, and Sharon Quark-Silva in Orange County. Each Republican in the Assembly who goes up allows one of these targeted Democrats to either lay off the bill or even vote against it! Look no further than the Assembly Transportation Committee vote on AB 8. Quark Silva serves on this committee, and initially cast her vote for the tax. But at the end of the meeting, when it was clear her vote was not needed, she changed it!
Finally, no one is saying that over-regulated California businesses should not get relief, but not through a broad-based tax increase on every automobile owner in California. If Republicans vote for this kind of scheme, it creates a template for much more to come. The majority party will continue offer up tax increases, with a fraction of the new revenues going to offset regulatory impact for some group of businesses. But like with all shake-down rackets, there will always be a portion of the proceeds that will go “to the house” for other programs. If Republicans don’t stand tall now, then look for a vicious cycle that completely obliterates the party’s limited government message.