I have said for a number of years that the purpose of the political process is to persuade people to entrust you with power. Republicans have generated messaging to do just that in the past, and it led to a Republican revival of biblical proportions in the past. We are at such a crossroads now, and the lessons from the past are worth studying to see the future.

The time was 1976. Republicans had just undergone the complete collapse of the party following Watergate, and had substantially less than a two thirds vote in both houses of the Legislature. Jerry Brown has just been elected Governor, and the liberals were in full control of the state. It was a time of darkness for Republicans in California. In those days, members of the Assembly didn’t have to press their buttons for each vote. They could put books down on the button, and each time the bell rang, the vote would be recorded according to whichever button had the books on it. For Republicans, this meant they could put their books on the NO button, leave the Legislature and go fishing. Which is exactly what they did. It didn’t really matter, they lost every single vote there was. Republicans, as discouraged as they may be now, were worse off then, and they recovered.

They recovered because liberals are liberals. Liberals just can’t control themselves. In those days, the issues that rose Republicans back to relevancy and back to the Governorship (for the sixteen years following Jerry Brown 1.0) were crime and taxes. Proposition 13, the death penalty, prison construction, three strikes, these issues combined over the years to actually bring Republicans to a majority in the Assembly in 1994. Republicans, of course being Republicans, started fighting with each other, and threw that majority away in 1996, but issues and focus were the keys to that majority then, just as they will be now.

The good news is liberals are still liberals, and they are handing Republicans the issues of crime and taxes again. They refused to build prisons, liberal judges let the bad guys out of prison, and now a bunch of people with a penchant for committing crimes are now running the streets of California again. Crime rates will go up, and Republicans need to be ready to point out that it is Democrats letting the bad guys out. Democrats opposed the death penalty in the 1970’s, and then Senator H.L. Richardson, seizing the political moment, hung them on that opposition. We will have that same opportunity soon.

In addition, liberal just gotta spend taxpayer money, and they have been doing that as well. So they are going to push to raise taxes. In 1974, some of the more moderate Republicans joined with Democrats to defeat Proposition 1, the precursor to Proposition 13. That was a mistake. Proposition 13 was a key factor in the rise of the Republican party in the 1970s, and eventually lead to Ronald Reagan as president. Howard Jarvis and then Senator Paul Gann saw the opportunity, seized on that political moment, and changed California politics forever. As it was in 1978, so it will be again in the next couple of years.

There are some pitfalls. Nobody “understands” the budget (until their taxes go up), and nobody cares about business regulation (except rich guys, which, by the way, do not make up a large part of the electorate). Majorities are not made on those issues. They might be good fundraising issues, but they cannot, and should not, be front and center in the next year. Crime and taxes. Opposing both, in a united fashion, will begin the road to recovery for Republicans.

In addition, while the pension issue is a good one, it must be approached with caution. Everyone knows someone who works for the government. They know in their hearts that the pensions to government employees are way too generous, but they don’t want their friend or their family member to lose their pensions. I have several members of my immediate and extended family who are government employees. They know that their pensions are too good to be true, but they are in positions where they are locked into that pension. If they think Republicans will take that away, they will reject Republican solutions in a visceral way. Republicans know that CalPERS is going to go bankrupt if it continues down the road it is on, and the unions don’t care if their members lose their pension in five or ten years, as long as the unions keep control of the political power that the pension funds give them. That is the message to current and retired public pensioners. The guys in charge are using government employee pensions to feather their own nests. Anecdotes about political investments that cost pensioners their money will further that message.

It will also engender public outrage at the losses, and undermine the unions messages that only they can protect these pensioners. Yes, CalPERS is going to fall apart, but the message has to be one of attacking the very political actions of the union bosses, if Republicans are going to build majorities (and responsible governance) on that issue. Otherwise it could backfire. Stories of investment corruption, along with the defined contribution solution, is the key to victory in this area.

Otherwise, for the next year, it is crime and taxes, taxes and crime, crime and taxes, taxes and crime. All year, all the time. Republicans will gain seats in the next four years, the liberals will make sure of that. However, a focused message of how Republican solutions to the upcoming crime and tax issues will make the life of Californians better is the key to the coming Republican revival. The voters will entrust Republicans with political power for a generation, if Republicans consistently, over the next three years, show that, on the issues of taxes and crime, they can be trusted with that power. No mixed messages, no “let’s be friends” ideas. Republicans cannot stand ready to help government get bigger, or let criminals go, on any level at any time. That is the message of trust that the voters will receive if the Republicans send it in a united and clear fashion. We will see if our current crop of officeholders can deliver those goods to the voters.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012 at 6:21 am and is filed under Blog Posts.