Flying way under the news radar for most Republicans outside of the South Bay part of Los Angeles is a Congressional Special Election to fill the seat of Jane Harman, who up and left Congress to head up a think tank.

The map of CD-36 is one of those that fueled the cries for redistricting reform over the last several years, taking in obviously very specially selected parts of the South Bay – but not others. And by others, I mean the Republican parts. As of February, the voter registration stats in the District were 45.28% Democrat to 27.46% Republican.

But those numbers are deceiving, as the gap between Democrats and Republicans among voters who actually turn out to vote in this District is much smaller. For instance, the last time this District saw a Special Election was the May 2009 Statewide Special Election. In that Election, among the 77,775 voters who turned out – 43.15% were Democrats and 39.38% were Republican.

That to say, of course it is a long shot for a Republican to capture this seat, but it is within the realm of possibility enough for Republicans to be anxiously and actively competing for it.

But that’s where Prop. 14 comes in.

In a normal Primary process, the Republicans would duke it out with each other for the right to take on the Democrats’ nominee and test this theory of whether CD-36 is winnable for a Republican.

But because the Party has handcuffed itself, no Republican nominee may make it through to the run-off in the first place.

Many of the Republican candidates in CD-36 seem to be decent enough guys, and a couple of them seem to be relatively popular local elected officials. Kit Bobko is a Hermosa Beach City Councilman, an Air Force Veteran, and a successful attorney. Mike Webb is the City Attorney in Redondo Beach. Either of them would make intriguing legislative candidates sometime in the future, and both seem to have bright futures in the Party. But for this race, neither of them has anything that could loosely be confused with sufficient money to compete in this race.

Redondo Beach Mayor Mike Gin, another candidate in the race, has tried to posture himself as the most viable Republican in the race. But this argument just doesn’t stand up to examination. He’s raised a little bit of money – more than Bobko and Webb, for sure, but nowhere near a competitive level. And in a partisan battle like a run-off would eventually be, Gin’s background leaves little to inspire the level of Republican turnout that would be necessary to give a Republican any chance of victory.

A low level staffer for his local Supervisor, Gin was endorsed in his last race for Redondo Mayor by both the LA County Federation of Labor and the LA Conservation League. He’s built a habit of supporting partisan Democrats for office – having contributed money to noted nutcase Congressman David Wu (D – Oregon), and having endorsed Ted Lieu last year for Attorney General. That endorsement of Lieu is especially notable as most Republicans in Los Angeles backed Republican Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley’s bid, not the Democrat Ted Lieu.

But Gin’s problems at inspiring Republican turnout don’t stop there. The local paper in the District, the Daily Breeze, reported from a forum that Gin attended that he was a supporter of the Dream Act, to provide tuition breaks to illegal immigrants, and found ObamaCare “’flawed’, but worth keeping.” It’s no wonder the LA Times referred to him not as a moderate Republican, but as a “liberal Republican.” Without the money to compete, or the background to get his own Party to coalesce behind him in a run-off, Mike Gin stands no chance in this race to play any role other than spoiler.

The only other strong Republican candidate in the race is local businessman Craig Huey, who is supported by Congressmen Rohrabacher, Royce, and McClintock. The reason for their support for Craig is simple. Sure, he tracks way more in line with their views of the world. Sure. But more importantly, he’s the only Republican who stands a chance to win in this race.

Why?

Well, for one, according to a local paper, he’s budgeted $800,000 of his own money for the race. To put that in perspective, that will likely end up being several times what the rest of the Republican candidates spend, combined.

He’s got the professional campaign behind him, the volunteer base necessary, and resources required to take it to the Democrats starting the morning after the Primary.

But Craig faces a real challenge here. Candidates Bobko and Webb aren’t likely to even hit 10% of the vote, but each will be sucking up thousands of Republican votes. Two other also-ran Republicans will each also pick up at least a few hundred Republican votes here and there. And while in a normal partisan Primary, this would matter much less – in the Top-2 environment, these votes could make the difference between a Republican either making the run-off or not.

Mike Webb said it best at a Lincoln Club forum. He said, “the first question Republicans need to ask of the candidates is, ‘Can he win?’”

This is one of those situations where the case for an endorsement from the California Republican Party is clear – they should be supporting Craig Huey. But the CRP punted on setting clear rules going forward for the Party to endorse in contested races. That inaction may well keep Republicans from having a candidate in the run-off in CD-36.

Craig Huey is the only Republican candidate who can make the run-off, and is the only candidate who gives Republicans a shot at beating the Democrats. All that remains to be seen is whether these other candidates cannibalize enough Republican votes from Huey to keep him from making the run-off in the first place.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 4th, 2011 at 2:18 pm and is filed under Blog Posts.