Here are a couple of California items from today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…

When Unions Get Desperate

There haven’t been any major earthquakes or wildfires in California recently, but teachers apparently think that the potential budget cuts to education merit a “State of Emergency Week.”

The California Teachers Association, the state’s largest teachers union, is planning a week of activities in May. The goal is to pressure Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown and the state legislature to raise taxes rather than cut education spending.

Earlier this week the union posted a 10-page list of potential activities on its website, CAstateofemergency.com. Ideas included stalking legislators for a day; boycotting corporations like Microsoft that advocate for education reform; attempting to close down major roads; dying their hair red; holding night-time vigils with coffins and black arm-bands; picketing companies; and withdrawing funds from banks that “are not paying their fair share of taxes.” They also planned to work with Ben & Jerry’s to create a “labor-union flavored ice cream.”

Apparently, the union didn’t realize that documents posted to the Internet are available for public consumption. Once the CTA heard that the list was bouncing around blogs, it was removed. Soon, a new three-page list appeared that omits many of their more ludicrous and heavy-handed ideas but still includes plans to use students as props. Instead of bullying and boycotting businesses, the union now intends to meet with local chambers of commerce and to “focus [their protests] on how much money has gone to bail out Wall Street and big corporations.”

CTA had hoped to persuade state legislators to put a $12.5 billion extension of tax hikes on the June ballot to help close a $26 billion deficit. The ballot measure required a two-thirds vote of the state legislature and the support of at least four Republicans. Negotiations between Mr. Brown and Republicans over the ballot measure broke down late last month.

The union has since shifted its focus to convincing Democrats to raise taxes without approval from voters or Republicans. Although the state constitution requires a two-thirds vote of the legislature to raise taxes, unions have suggested that Democrats should risk litigation and increase taxes without Republican support. The only other options for Democrats are to resume talks with Republicans or to close the budget deficit with spending cuts. Unions don’t want to do the former and won’t stand for the latter. That means they’ll have to convince Mr. Brown that their interests supersede law and democracy.

— Allysia Finley

California’s Mapquest

With the release of new Census data last month, California’s untested redistricting process kicked into a higher gear. The state’s notoriously static battle lines are about to become more unpredictable.

For starters, California’s population is becoming more Hispanic and less coastal. Whites remain the largest ethnic group in the state, but at 40.1%, they make up only shade more than Latinos, who now constitute 37.6%. Overall, the non-white Hispanic population grew by some 28% over the past decade.

Meanwhile, the migration from traditional population centers — namely, the Bay Area and Los Angeles — to suburbs and exurbs inland means that power will start shifting in that direction, as well, especially since the Citizens Redistricting Commission must focus on demographic data and ignore partisan and political concerns. The commissioners will surely find it hard to look past growth in places like Riverside County, where the population increase of 41.7% was fueled in large part by defections from Los Angeles County, which grew by only 3.1%. Consequently, one can probably expect Los Angeles to lose a House seat to the Inland Empire and for the Bay Area to cede one to the Central Valley.

Some on the right are cautiously optimistic that new districts in the state’s more conservative interior will favor California’s beleaguered Republicans. Then again, the GOP could also find itself in worse shape after the redistricting commission does its work. The lines of currently safe Republican districts could be redrawn to include larger Hispanic populations, something the GOP is particularly vulnerable to since it no longer constitutes a majority of registered voters in any of the state’s congressional districts.

California voters also approved a proposition last year creating an open primary system, in which the top two candidates, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. Who this helps and who this hurts could vary wildly district-by-district.

Overall, Democrats hope the new lines and new rules lead either to the election of inland, probably Hispanic, Democrats or at least more moderate Republicans. The GOP, meanwhile, would love to see a couple safe seats come their way while Democratic incumbents are forced to cannibalize each other. A third outcome might be the replacement of two untouchably Democratic districts with a pair of more competitive ones — something both sides can live with.

In any case, the battle lines will remain guesswork until the redistricting commission finishes its work in August.

— Carl J. Kelm

This entry was posted on Friday, April 15th, 2011 at 8:09 pm and is filed under Blog Posts.