In talking to my friends in Orange County there appears to be some misunderstanding of how large the Latino population is. I hear comments about the possibility of the redistricting commission somehow eliminating or dramatically changing Senate District 34. That is not going to happen.
The Voting Rights Act protects the ability of certain communities to be grouped together in redistricting process. That will continue to happen in Orange County.
The attached document will give you an idea of the magnitude of the population densities in Orange County.
The minimum for the County of Orange will be one district in the State Senate that will likely be held by a Democrat (the replacement for Senator Lou Correa), one Congressional seat (held by Democrat Loretta Sanchez), and at least one Assembly seat (currently held by Assemblyman Jose Solorio).
The real question is what districts are drawn beyond these minimums. I actually think we could see more.
Consider this, most people think of Assemblyman Chris Norby’s seat as a safe Republican seat and it is. However, the percentage of residents in his district that are Latino citizens of voting age population (CVAP) is 47% — by far the highest of Republican held districts in So Cal. This area of the state will have great potential for Latino voters although it is likely to remain a Republican seat for the next decade.
See Orange County Latino map in scalable .pdf here.