Redistricting can produce some strange outcomes.
For example, after a court drawn redistricting map took effect in 1992 three sitting members of the Assembly ended up running against each other in Orange County.
In a closed Republican primary in June 1992 sitting Republican Assemblymembers Tom Mays (Huntington Beach), Doris Allen (Cypress) and Nolan Frizzelle (Fountain Valley) all ran against each other for the 67th Assembly District.
After public employee unions spent more than $70,000 in the race, the people of California were stuck with Doris Allen as the winner. That alone could be the subject of a book.
So 20 years latter, why is this story relevant today? Because it is likely to happen again.
Section 2d6e of Article XXI of the State Constitution reads:
(e) The place of residence of any incumbent or political candidate shall not be considered in the creation of a map. Districts shall not be drawn for the purpose of favoring or discriminating against an incumbent, political candidate, or political party.
That is a big deal.
Ten years ago the homes of incumbents were considered. In fact, all the incumbents were accommodated with the exception of Congressman Steve Horn of Long Beach who was redistricted into retirement.
Not this time.
Let’s just take a look at the Fresno area.
We have two new State Senators from Stanislaus County in Republicans Anthony Canella and Tom Berryhill. One is from Modesto and the other is from Ceres – just a few miles apart. We also have two new Senators in Kern County in Republican Jean Fuller and Democrat Michael Rubio, both are from Bakersfield and live just miles apart.
However, while Senators Canella and Berryhill and Senators Fuller and Rubio are practically neighbors, there is not a single Senator between them.
When you leave Ceres on Highway 99 traveling south you drive past Turlock and say good-bye to Stanislaus County, drive through Merced County with 250,000 people, cruise Chowchilla while going through Madera County with 150,000 residents, Fresno with 900,000 residents, Kings with 150,000, Tulare with 430,000 until you hit the Kern County line. This does not even count the smaller rural counties of Mono, Mariposa, and Inyo that you can see off to the East.
After completing a 3 hour drive to Bakersfield you still have not driven by the home of a single State Senator that resides between Stanislaus County and Kern County.
Clearly a Senate seat is going to open up in the Fresno area from this redistricting process.
Now let’s look at San Francisco.
They have the inverse issue. In a county of about 850,000 people they have two Senators. Senators Leland Yee and Mark Leno are both from San Francisco. This is a county/city that is only big enough for one Senator.
The Senate District for John Burton/Carole Migden/Mark Leno has always taken in parts of Marin County to give as many options as possible to the folks from SF. Not this time. It is extremely unlikely that seats travel across the Golden Gate Bridge. That really puts the squeeze on Yee and Leno. Someone needs to move or leave.
A commission that legally can’t take the residences of incumbent Legislators into account means some great races in 2012. Let’s just hope that the candidate most like Doris Allen loses this time.
December 21st, 2010 at 12:00 am
All good points. Could be also see the return of Assembly District nesting? hmmm
December 21st, 2010 at 12:00 am
There are all sorts of other issues along the way that will come up because of new court rulings. But I don’t think the concerns about Fresno are as likely to be a problem. The law currently allows the legislature to enforce it’s own residency rules after someone is elected (which is why David Roberti could serve in a completely different Senate seat while running in a special for an open seat in the Valley)so a few people might have to move, but there has been a long tradition of people not challenging electeds who obviously have to move and I think that will still stay in place. But of the hundreds of possible things that could go wrong with the new system (and there are literally hundreds) the funniest possibility in my opinion applies to the State Senate and is because of the section of the law you are talking about. You could definitely have a situation where the numbering works out where a Senator in his last term because of term limits and the numbering system for districts winds up as the incumbent for an area that is completely in control of the other party. If that Senator was going to run again, they would move into a new district that they could win, but with a commission doing things, depending on how they interpreted the law, you could wind up for example with a State Senator from San Francisco like Leland Yee representing a district containing Republican Farmland or a Lou Correa representing a heavily Republican District in Orange County or for that matter a Bob Huff representing the constituents in Gloria Negrete McLeod’s district. There would be a district drawn in such a way that eventually the voters in the area would have their say, but the numbering could work out where either party could pick up a seat for four years that by all rights should go to members of the other party. By the way, I don’t think because of recent court rulings that it will be possible to have nesting. The reason is that it would almost definitely eliminate African Americans in the State Senate and would clearly cut the number of Latino elected officials way below their percentage of the population. That’s an opinion though and I am not a lawyer.
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
I should correct one thing in my post. An area could wind up with a State Senator from a political party that the district would never elect for a two year period maximum.
The way it could happen would be a State Senator reelected this year would then have the right to serve until 2014.
With the redistricting commission unable to consider residency or political advantages in drawing district lines, it is easy for the cumulative effect of drawing lines to essentially change the numbers in the manner I described. The Lou Correa example I gave is probably more likely to happen than not, because redistricting has to start in the North and work South, so the cumulative effect takes a while to kick in, but by the time they draw Orange County districts, it very easily could have happened.
One other thing that could happen in a few cases that would really be dicey would be in a situation where a Senator who was just elected in 2010 could find that his number matched up with a district controlled by the other party, but a neighboring district that was up in 2012 was safely in the hands of his parties voters, so he or she could be tempted to give up two years to run for election in a district that was winnable. This is a less likely scenario and probably wouldn’t happen in more than one or two districts, but could easily happen given the unusual confluence of term limits and a reapportionment commission and the unusual requirement of not being able to consider where an incumbent lives.
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
It could happen for Reps. David Dreier and Gary Miller both live just miles apart.
The San Gabriel Valley could see two or three new Assemblymembers under a new map.
Going to be an interesting 2011 when the maps are finally revealed!
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:00 am
Unlike State Legislators, Members of Congress do not have to reside in their Districts. They merely have to reside in the State of California.
January 11th, 2011 at 12:00 am
Redistricting will make the 2012 election cycle both fun and entertaining. Who knows? I could end up running against Baca instead of Lewis in 2012..anything can happen and I am sure there will be some unavoidable klunkiness for the incumbents.
One thing for sure is that there will be an increasing number of “citizens representatives” winning seats, replacing many professional politicians, sending more and more of the 1970 dinosaurs to the retirement home.
The ascendency of conservatism will be aided by redistricting. Therefore, it is welcome indeed.