I know many FR readers must think that I am a big Prop. 19 backer or will email asking for my Medical Marijuana Card by suggesting that the GOP may gain seats in Los Angeles County.

This election cycle I wanted people to look at the 53rd Assembly District and the campaign Nathan Mintz was running. Well he lost. He was underfunded and the GOP wave never hit California. The election returns were interesting and means that the GOP needs to look at this area in 2012.

Nathan Mintz lost the election.

In this four person race,he got 43% of the vote. His Democratic opponent got 50.3% with the two minor party candidates getting the rest. When you look at race like Assembly District 10 where the caucus and many others put plenty of resources in and in an four person Field GOP nominee Jack Sieglock got 42.7% and the Democrat got 52%, Mintz did pretty good and his district had less GOP registration. (Another neglected race was AD 35 where Mike Stoker got just over 45% of the vote.)

The real story is Mintz won very city. Redondo Beach, Torrance, etc… BTW: Meg Whitman can’t say that. His problem was the far North of the District in Venice and Marina Del Rey, The Los Angeles city parts gave a big margin to Butler. If you have been to Torrance and Venice you know they are different kinds of communities, with Venice being the most different.

So the question is what happens in reapportionment?

If you look a little south into the 54th Assembly District you will find that the GOP candidate with almost no money was leading the incumbent Dem after absentees. One reason is the area known as “The Hill”. The cities of Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Palos Verdes, and Rancho Palos Verdes on Palos Verdes Peninsula are “The Hill” and are Republican and the northern tip of the 54th Assembly District.
 
What happens if the northern part of the 53rd gets taken out and is replaced by the northern part of the 54th? It becomes a possible GOP pick up.

Depending on how lines are drawn and the issue of crossing county lines are addressed, it isn’t hard to see a foothill District from La Canada to Claremont and Southeast/San Gabriel Seat and one or two in the Antelope, Santa Clarita and San Fernando Valleys that are competitive for Republicans. Have five elected within Los Angeles County would free up some of the other GOP voters and put us on a path to more Republican victories. 

In 1994 and 1996, Los Angeles County seats made the GOP the majority and losing three close one cost us the majority in 1996. Los County can have big impact in 2012, if we develop it.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 29th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.