It was a Republican tsunami nationwide, that turned into a riptide when it hit California, and sucked the Republicans in this state into the ocean. The question is why? How could a year that began with so much promise fall apart so completely?
The loss was complete. Even if Steve Cooley is able to pull out of his embarrassing showing against the weakest Democrat ever to run for Attorney General, it is no great victory. $140 million for Governor, and other millions for the various other seats. Never has so much been spent on so few to accomplish so little. We could have all gone home, watched football, saved the money, and still done just as well as we did in this election. What went wrong?
I have my own theories, and they begin with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Meg Whitman began her campaign sounding like Schwarzenegger, and ended up losing. Schwarzenegger has given the Republicans a bad name in California. The country showed its dislike of Obama by voting against his candidates throughout the country. The state showed its dislike of Schwarzenegger by voting against Republicans.
On a national level, Republicans didn’t win. Democrats lost. In this state, Democrats didn’t win, Republicans lost. This state’s voters are so disgusted with Schwarzenegger that they show their displeasure with every Republican.
We also see it with the historic low registration numbers for Republicans statewide. 31% isn’t a party, it’s a small social gathering, only in the case of Republicans, it’s more like a family gathering where nobody likes each other. We have spent so much time arguing with each other that we forgot that the neighbors were listening, and they kicked us out of the neighborhood when we weren’t looking.
So, what do we do? Well, six years ago, I proposed the "Adopt a District" plan, a plan to get our elected legislators to work on growing the party outside of their district. Since it requires our elected officials to actually work, it really hasn’t gotten off the ground. Now, however, it is a matter of their own survival. When the redistricting is done this time around, if the legislators haven’t worked outside their current district, they may just lose their seat.
The next thing to do is put together a coherent, cohesive set of principles to bind the party together, and set common goals to achieve, on principle and tactically. We can be confident that the Democrats in the Legislature will destroy this state. Brown will be a lot like Davis, and he will try to resist them, but he will capitulate, and when he does, the state will begin a downward spiral of epic proportions. Republicans need to be ready to fill the gap, philosophically and tactically. Our recovery as a party will require hard work, focus, clarity of thought, and an aggressive effort to convince voters that the Republican agenda is what is best for their lives. Democrats will spend the next two to four years convincing voters (by their actions) that they are inept, incompetent, and a little corrupt. Republicans need to compare and contrast who they are with who the Democrats are at every turn.
Or, we can just whine, complain, tuck our tail between our legs, and lick our wounds. Moderates can blame conservatives, conservatives can blame moderates. We can have internecine wars to the death in our party conventions, and activists can send dirty, nasty little emails to Republicans throughout the state about whoever the party leaders are to satisfy their own "big fish in little pond" power grabs. We can do all the things we have done in the past. We can keep doing the same thing we have been doing, and we will keep getting the same thing we been getting.
Or, we can work our butts off, and turn this state around. I for one will choose the "work our butts off" strategy. Suits me more than whining, or listening to others whine, but, that’s just me.
November 6th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Let’s get real instead of just emotional about our analysis of Tuesday’s California election.
First, let us recognize the ever growing California voter registration of Latinos and Asians as proportionate non-Republicans…studies by Pew and others indicate the growth in this group of voters during the last couple of decades has been about 1.5 million voters 4 to 1 non-Republican.
Further, the emigration from California of mostly middle aged caucasians, the proportionate best source for Republican voters, has resulted in a net loss of 400,000 voters where the non-Republican ratio was near 1 to 1.
As a result, between 1994 and this November, California statewide Republican voter registration, according to the Secretary of State, dropped from 37% to today’s 31% while the moderate to liberal Democrats are still at 44% and the moderate to liberal Declines-to-State are 20%. Now you can see better what an extremely hard task our two best funded Republican statewide candidates, Whitman and Fiorina, faced and what the principal reason for their losses was.
The reality is that the moderate to liberal voters who make up the California super-majority, about two thirds, rationally accept the full role of government dole, such as extended unemployment compensation, welfare, Section 8 housing, food stamps and even massive deficit spending to right the economy. These same voters know that Republican candidates almost universally fight to limit the size and scope of these taxpayer funded programs to the truly needy smaller sized population and almost universally oppose outsized Obama style deficit spending.
So, for all these reasons, California tends to vote for Democratic Party candidates unless the moderate to liberal super-majority sees the Republican as clearly better through their viewpoints. For example, that was the case in the Schwartzenegger versus Davis governor’s race and the Cooley versus Harris Attorney General race with Harris opposing the death penalty, a position Californians clearly support.
I’m afraid the Schwartzmuscle record had only a small part in Tuesday’s Republican routing as much bigger fundamental Republican problems were lurking in California.
Ernie Konnyu, (Republican-San Jose)
Former Member, U.S. COngress
November 7th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Of course, no one will listen to Ernie. The best way to get party pundits and elites attention is never ever contribute one dime to the California Republican Party. Why pay for pathetic performance???
November 8th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Ray sez
“I for one will choose the “work our butts off” strategy.”
I am a little confused on what strategy you want us to work are butts off for to turn this State around ?
Ray sez
“Schwarzenegger has given the Republicans a bad name in California”
Arnie the only one giving Republicans a bad name ?
It may even go further back than Arnie ?
Ray sez
“Brown will be a lot like Davis”
Is Brown & Davis a lot like Haynes ?
If I am reading this right it looks like Sen. Ray Haynes voted for SB 400 ( am I wrong Ray ? ), the bill that increased public employee pension benefits & IMO a major problem we face in this State today
No Republican opposition to SB 400 in the Senate could this be another reason Republicans have a bad name ?
http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/99-00/bill/sen/sb_0351-0400/sb_400_vote_19990910_1113AM_sen_floor.html
AYES , (AYES 39. NOES 0.) (PASS)
AYES
****
Alarcon Alpert Baca Bowen
Brulte Burton Chesbro Costa
Dunn Escutia Figueroa Hayden
Haynes Hughes Johannessen Johnson
Johnston Karnette Kelley Knight
Leslie Lewis McPherson Monteith
Mountjoy Murray O’Connell Ortiz
Peace Perata Polanco Poochigian
Rainey Schiff Sher Solis
Speier Vasconcellos Wright
NOES
****