From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…
A State Senate Race that Really, Really Matters
California has been besotted by the races for governor and U.S senator, but maybe Californians should really be paying attention to the battle for Jeff Denham’s state senate seat.
Mr. Denham, the Republican who has held the Central Valley seat for the last eight years, is term-limited and running for U.S. Congress. That’s created an opening for Democrats, who have a 15-point registration advantage in the district, to seize a strategic prize of greater value than any ordinary state senate seat. A Democratic pick-up would bring the party to within one seat of the super-majority required to pass a budget and hike taxes without any GOP votes.
Mr. Denham won the seat in 2002 by a fewer than 2,000 votes. In 2008, with the state in fiscal crisis and the legislature deadlocked, Democrats led by Senate President Don Perata mounted a campaign to recall him in hopes of mustering the power to push through tax hikes without needing Republican support. Voters in the district apparently figured out what was going on. Mr. Denham won with 76%.
More than $1.7 million in outside money has poured into this year’s race, pitting Democrat Anna Caballero against Republican Anthony Cannella. Nearly a million has come so far from the California Chamber of Commerce. Republicans are willing to do "whatever it takes" to hold the seat, says GOP senate leader Bob Dutton. Apparently that includes striking a devil’s bargain with the California Correctional Peace Officers Association.
Despite its relatively small size, the prison guards union is one of the most powerful Democratic interests in the state, exceeding even the teachers union in its political contributions and clout. It also remains one of the few unions still bitterly resisting Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s pay and pension cuts. Democrats balked at the governor’s plan at first, but eventually agreed to pension reforms in return for the governor rescinding furloughs for any unions that went along with the reforms. Still holding out, though, were the prison guards. Sure enough, Mr. Dutton and other senate Republicans who had vigorously supported pension reform voted against the deal, claiming it unfairly punished the prison guards.
In what most assume was a quid pro quo, this week the prison guards raised eyebrows around the state by purchasing $215,000 in airtime for an ad opposing the Democrat Ms. Caballero for the 12th district senate seat. All of the state’s other major unions — the teachers, firefighters, nurses, polices officers, and highway patrolmen — have endorsed the state assemblywoman. The SEIU and other labor groups have poured $400,000 into her campaign.
For the record, Mr. Dutton and the state GOP deny any backroom deal. Maybe so, but Republicans had little to lose by opposing the governor’s budget deal since the governor had secured enough Democratic votes to pass the reforms. Likewise, Republicans have a lot to gain from the union’s support in the 12th district race. In California, Republican legislators are often derided as heedless ideologues. In this case, however, they clearly aren’t averse to playing the inside game with as much pragmatism as the Democrats frequently display.
— Allysia Finley