Conservative Republican Assemblyman Ted Gaines has retained well-respected pollster, strategist and FR friend Arnie Steinberg for his public opinion research.  Steinberg & Associates just got out of the field with a survey…  Here is a memo from the pollster to his client (but really written for the rest of us)…

Date:  September 7, 2010
To:  Assemblyman Ted Gaines and Dave Gilliard
Fm:  Arnold Steinberg
Re:  Senate District 1

Conclusion.   Based on my review of the data, I believe Assemblyman Ted Gaines is in a good position at the outset, and in an excellent position to capture the Republican nomination in the November special election primary.  In this type of election, the candidates – Republican or Democrat – are on the same ballot and the top vote-getter representing each party goes onto the run-off in January.  Gaines is the only candidate with a chance to win outright with 50% in November and thereby avoid a run-off.  Here are a few key points:

• Starting Point/Republicans.  In the opening ballot question, Roger Niello and Ted Gaines are in a dead heat, a virtual tie, 20.7% to 20.2%.  Barbara Alby is distantly behind with 7.0%.
• Starting Point/Democrat.   In the opening ballot question, Democrat Ken Cooley is at 17.5%, closely behind Ted Gaines and Roger Niello.  In a hard-fought Gaines-Niello contest, Cooley could benefit significantly.
• Informed Ballot.  In the informed ballot, the Gaines preponderance over Niello is overwhelming.   Gaines leads Niello 49.1% to 16.7%.   What is key is that Gaines runs away with the election not merely among Republicans, but among the significant number of independent voters. Democrat Cooley comes in second at 17.7%.
• Issues.  On net balance, the issues and endorsements tilt measurably toward Gaines over Niello.  The vulnerabilities of Niello are decisive.  In the unlikely case of a presumed vulnerability of Gaines, our mitigation does well. 
• Fiscal Issues. The state budget crisis and related fiscal issues are key, and inseparable from the economic matrix.   Niello’s support for a state budget that included spending increases and tax hikes makes him uniquely vulnerable.

Quick Overview/Methodology.   Using our proprietary methodology, we created, to fairly represent the November electorate, for this special election, a database, from which we created a dynamic random sample, continuously accessed during the interviewing process.  Our programming assured proper rotation of questions and proper rotation of responses within questions.    The survey, consisting of 401 completed interviews, occurred during four weeknights Mon/August 23  to Thurs/August 26.   This allowed ample time for callbacks.  While the theoretical margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5 percent, our considerable experience indicates the actual statistical error is likely inconsequential.  Experienced supervisors were complemented by computer monitoring of trained and briefed interviewers.  The completed sample closely represented the electorate, in terms of political and demographic variables.  We created an objective questionnaire sequence and asked the questions in a fair way, including appropriate ballot designations, in order to provide reliable data.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 7th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.