As is always the case after a major election, there is much more to write about than there is time to write! Look for more substantive analysis on specific races and such, but for this morning, I will take a stab at some overall analysis – all of which will be too brief in any one, but this is an overview, after all. I am not going to be pouring election numbers into this, you can get plenty of that elsewhere. Before I start my run down, I want to echo the praise extended by FR friend Aaron McLear to the Capitol Press Corps who all stepped up in their blogging and tweeting last night. Outstanding. Also a reminder – I am mostly looking at GOP races – someone else will take a closer look at the Dems…
OK, off to the races…
STATEWIDE RACES
GOVERNOR: Congratulations to Meg Whitman, and to her (extensive) campaign team. Whitman posted a convincing win over rival Poizner. So much so that Whitman goes into the Summer with significant momentum. I wonder if her first commercials will be up…today? Jerry Brown and his public employee union cohorts will be very unhappy with these results. Interestingly, in his concession speech, Poizner opted not to endorse Whitman. We’ll see how that plays out.
U.S. SENATE: Carly Fiorina thumped her two primary opponents with her wide margin of victory. This sets the stage for what will be a very competitive general election between two very assertive women. If Massachusetts can elect a Republican, I think California certainly can. I was very proud of Chuck DeVore’s campaign – as a movement conservative, he held up the torch very high. His endorsement of Fiorina, and standing by her side last night, was a class act. As for Tom Campbell, I’ve been patiently waiting for this primary to be over so that I could say this, most respectfully: Go back to your world of liberal academia now, you three time loser! OK, I feel better. Campbell’s attempts to characterize himself as any kind of conservative were disingenuous, at best.
LT. GOVERNOR: I’m sure it surprises no one to hear that I was disappointed in the results of this primary. But I am not the only one as well over half of GOP primary voters cast their ballots for someone other than the sitting Lt. Governor of California. Maldonado’s presence on the GOP ticket brings a healthy ethnic diversity, which is good. But it also brings diversity on the tax issue, which isn’t so good. A great way for Maldo to consolidate his base going into November would be issue a public apology for violating his no taxes pledge last year. Sam Aanestad ran significantly behind Maldo, and should be saluted for his statesmanship during the primary. Fortunately for Maldonado, his opponent, Gavin Newsom, is so liberal that he makes Maldo look reasonable – not easy to do.
ATTORNEY GENERAL: As a Lincoln Fellow with the Claremont Institute, I have to admit that my heart was with the candidacy of John Eastman. That said, Steve Cooley will be a formidable candidate to be the state’s top cop, and the Democrats helped Cooley’s candidacy quite a bit by nominating liberal San Francisco District Attorney Kamela Harris. While primaries tend to accentuate the differences between candidates, the divide between Harman, Eastman and Cooley seems so slight now compared to the deep contrasts between Cooley and Harris. On a side not, one has to imagine that Democrat Chris Kelly must be chagrined for all of his personal wealth that he dumped into the primary, to get his clock cleaned.
TREASURER, CONTROLLER, SECRETARY OF STATE: Walters, Strickland and Dunn are queued up for November on the GOP side. No surprises here. All will challenge incumbent Democrats – Lockyer, Chiang and Bowen, respectively.
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER: This is the upset of the night for statewide candidate races. In a classic case of taking the primary for granted, former Assembly GOP Leader Mike Villines lost to an obscure Department of Insurance attorney, Brian FitzGerald! Villines spent some money to appear on every slate card imaginable (which might say something about slate cards). So why did Villines lose? Let’s not discount a substantial loss of Republican votes because of Villines’ decision to violate his no new taxes pledge in 2009… Democrat Dave Jones is undoubtedly tickled pink. The big question is what will Villines’ do with the massive war chest that he had amassed?
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION: Eyebrows are raised as Gloria Romero is aced out of the non-partisan runoff. Tom Torlakson goes up against Lary Aceves. Republicans have no standard bearer, though Acevas is clearly the more “reasonable” Democrat.
BOARD OF EQUALIZATION: Hearty congrats to conservative and FR blogging State Senator George Runner. In what turned out to be a pretty tight race between Runner and conservatives Nakanishi and Alby, Runner came out on top. He’ll be a strong taxpayer advocate in this “safe” GOP seat. Michelle Steel won her race handily.
STATEWIDE BALLOT MEASURES
PROP 14: The passage of Proposition 14 really does put a pall on the entire evenings results. I cannot put words to how bad this measure is, and how it will lead to few legislators to are passionate about their ideas, and more politicians who will be malleable to the special interests in Sacramento. It will mean higher taxes in the long run. Look for it to be transformative for the major parties – who will now have to endorse before the primaries in each office. Also look for litigation against this measure to occur asap.
PROP 15: Great news – the public rejected this red herring that was really all about lifting the constitutional prohibition against public financing of campaigns. I’m sure this issue will be back, and when it returns, may it be as efficiently dispatched.
PROP 16 & 17: What to say? I guess the public doesn’t like utilities or insurance companies? Both of these measures were substantially funded (especially Prop. 16 by PG&E) and both had relatively minor formal opposition. In the end, these companies can blame it on the very low turnout. Nevertheless, stunning losses given the economic considerations.
CONGRESS: As they say, no one likes Congress, but everyone likes their Congressman. My local Representative, Gary Miller, won his contested primary, but got dragged down well below 50% by two challengers. In a Prop. 14 world, he would be forced into a November runoff. But this year, he now coasts. State Senator Jeff Denham posted up a big win in his bid for Congress – term limited Rep. George Radanovich was “all in” for Denham, and it paid off. Most notable was how poorly former Congressman Richard Pombo performed in this race. It is also notable that Denham’s victory was district-wide, including Fresno County. In the donnybrook to carry the GOP banner in CD 11, David Harmer came out on top. I predict that he will be sworn in as a Congressman in January. Democrat McNerney sealed his own fate with his vote for Obamacare in this moderate, swing district. I also note that in Orange County, Loretta Sanchez must be less than thrilled that a good number more Republicans voted than Democrats in her district…
STATE SENATE: There were a few matchups worth mentioning. In the North State, rice farmer/former Assemblyman/FR blogger Doug La Malfa handily dispatched Rick Keene in this very GOP seat. Tom Berryhill easily walked into the Senate seat of ex-GOP leader Dave Cogdill, Republican Bill Emmerson was elected in a special election to the Senate, he will be sworn in right away. In the 16tth Tim Theisen barely beat back Phil Wyman – for the chance to go after Rubio in the Fall. Next door Jean Fuller coasted (uncontested) into the nomination for what is now the seat occupied by Roy Ashburn. In the 34th down in Orange County, Lou Correa should be very concerned that Anaheim Councilwoman Lucille Kring, his Republican general election opponent, drew 500 more votes than did he. Conservative Assemblyman Joel Anderson easily bested moderate Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone for the nomination in the 36th, to succeed termed-out Dennis Hollingsworth. Finally, it’s worth mentioning that down in San Diego, in the 40th, there is a big Dem on Dem dust up – Mary Salas and Juan Vargas are the candidates. With 300 or so votes separating the two, it’s too close to call. Vargas, who is viewed as more moderate, had a lot of business community support.
STATE ASSEMBLY: A quicker run through how Assembly Reps faired… Jim Nielsen beat back a surprisingly strong primary challenger. Andy Pugno dominated the AD 5 GOP primary, and goes up against a Dem doctor in the fall. Democrat Alyson Huber should be worried as GOP challenger Jack Sieglock had around 9,000 more raw votes than did Huber! Abram Wilson had around 1,000 more raw votes than his general election foe Joan Buchanan. In the race for the 25th District, conservative Kristen Olson bested a crowded field. In the race to succeed Mike Villines in the 29th, FR friend Linda Halderman, a staunch conservative (and a doctor) handily defeated her two primary opponents. In Bakersfield Shannon Grove ran over former CRA President Ken Mettler, winning over 2/3 of the vote! In the 33rd, where Sam Blakeslee is termed out, moderate Katcho Achadjian beat back two more conservative challengers. It bodes well for November that nearly 40,000 people voted Republican between the candidates, where as the lone Democrat received only around 22,000 votes. Former Pete Wilson staffer Jeff Gorrell easily clinched the nomination for the 37th , Audra Strickland’s seat. In what could be a major upset, Tea Party activist Tim Donnelly is neck and neck (actually a little ahead) of expected nominee Chris Lancaster in the 59th District. In the 63rd longtime FR friend and staunch conservative Mike Morrell will replace Bill Emmerson. Next door incumbent Brian Nestande thumped a primary opponent with ¾ of the vote. In the 68th, where Van Tran is retiring (he’s off to Congress, he hopes), conservative Allan Mansoor easily won the GOP nod. In the 70th district currently represented by Chuck DeVore, conservative leader Don Wagner one a very close primary but will coast to election this November. Don tragically lost his son a few days ago, thus a bitter-sweet victory for him. Don’s victory is a big one for the Family Action PAC which circled the wagons for him. Finally, down in East San Diego County, conservative Brian Jones was the clear victor in this safe GOP seat (the incumbent is Joel Anderson).
LOCAL RACES: There are way too many for me to cover them all. A few highlights of interest to me… I am from SoCal, and so are these races… Audra Strickland got THUMPED in her campaign for Supervisor – most unfortunate. In San Bernardino County, you can start reading last rites to Supervisor Paul Biane. He barely got a third of the vote in his bid for reelection. He will run-off against my longtime friend (whom I’ve endorsed) Janice Rutherford in November (she was only about 900 votes behind Biane, and this is before she consolidates the anti-incumbent vote). In Orange County, in the “Battle Royale” between the GOP and the county’s largest public employee unions, the GOP won the first round with Shawn Nelson getting elected to the Board of Supervisors. He will serve out Chris Norby’s term and face a fall run-off with Harry Sidhu. Sheriff Sandra Hutchens won election outright, and will not have to worry about a run-off. In San Diego Republican Lori Zapf won election to the City Council in what was called an uphill battle, term limits passed for Supervisors (good call) and in Chula Vista voters banned Public Labor Agreements!! In Riverside County, appoint Supervisor John Benoit easily won election over Gary Jeandron. Finally, in what I would call the upset of the night at the local level, incumbent District Attorney Rod Pacheco (yes, the former Assembly Republican Leader) was tossed out by voters, replaced with Judge Paul Zellerbach!
LOOKING AHEAD: In less than two weeks is the special election in SD 15, Lt. Governor Maldonado’s old seat. Democrat John Laird and Republican Sam Blakeslee face off. Can one of them close it out in the primary with 50%+1?
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