Yesterday on my way back from Sacramento, I tuned into one of my favorite talk radio hosts, Tom Sullivan (a long-time KFBK personality, Sullivan is now syndicated and works out of New York). During yesterday’s show, Sullivan asked listeners to call in and discuss a handful of important U.S. Senate seats, including Barbara Boxer’s seat. He wanted to know if people were practical voters (voting for the candidate most likely to win) or principled voters (voting for the candidate most near and dear to your heart and political beliefs).
His analysis of the California seat, in a nutshell, was this: Chuck DeVore is the Tea Party candidate and doesn’t have a shot at unseating Boxer; Carly Fiorina is an unknown political entity, a disgraced corporate exec (his words, not mine) and doesn’t have a shot; Tom Campbell is an experienced public servant and respected academic and is the only candidate that has a shot at unseating Boxer. Practical voters would vote for Campbell.
The reality is that the practical voter is not going to vote for Tom Campbell because Tom Campbell doesn’t have what it takes to win a statewide race. Sullivan and his guest, University of
Virginia political science Prof Larry Sabato, made the point that Campbell ran in 1992 but didn’t get the GOP nomination and could have unseated Boxer at that time. But they failed to point out that he made—and lost—a bid for the U.S. Senate in 2000 against Dianne Feinstein. They also failed to point out that Campbell started out this political season as a candidate for governor, but switched races when it was clear that it was going to be difficult to beat Meg Whitman for the GOP nomination.
Virginia political science Prof Larry Sabato, made the point that Campbell ran in 1992 but didn’t get the GOP nomination and could have unseated Boxer at that time. But they failed to point out that he made—and lost—a bid for the U.S. Senate in 2000 against Dianne Feinstein. They also failed to point out that Campbell started out this political season as a candidate for governor, but switched races when it was clear that it was going to be difficult to beat Meg Whitman for the GOP nomination.There is no doubt that Tom Campbell is very experienced in state and federal issues. There is no argument that he is one of the smartest guys around (his nickname in the halls of the Capitol when he was a state senator was “Senator Smarty-pants”). But if a strong resume and a good mind were all that it took to create a winning campaign, we’d all be talking about President McCai
n right now.
n right now. I consider myself a practical voter, which is why I cast my vote for Carly Fiorina. She’s not my dream candidate. Honestly, I’m not sure that she can beat Boxer. I hope so and I hope, once in office, she lives up to our GOP nomination and doesn’t go Schwarzenegger on us.
But what I do know is that Tom Campbell does not have what it takes to win statewide office. If he did, he’d be Senator Campbell today, having unseated Feinstein. Or he’d be the leading candidate for governor. But he’s not. And word is now that his campaign is going dark in the final days leading into Election Day. I rest my case.
June 3rd, 2010 at 12:00 am
Let’s be Fair !
Tom Campbell only lost that 2000 race against Dianne Feinstein
by a margin of 2,045,669 votes.
Scoreboard…….DiFi….5,932,522 ……….Campbel… 3,886,853.
Campbell lost Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Fresno
counties. That’s not easy for a GOP nominee.
June 3rd, 2010 at 12:00 am
People thought DiFi was tried and true like Pete Wilson. I had people back in 2000 who refused to pass out Campbell fliers or anything with his name when I was part of the San Bernardino County GOTV effort. That could explain the vote difference compared from DiFi to Campbell.
Compared to Boxer, Campbell is more conservative. Campbell will appeal to the DTS voter. Campbell will appeal to the centrist Democrats who dont like Boxer (Mickey Kaus type people).
Even if Campbell comes with a come from behind victory we will see people pulling the rug from Campbell and not vote for him like 2000. Maybe we are cursed with Boxer until Republican voters realize we need a candidate that matches the sensibilities of our political culture.
June 4th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Embrace the Tea Party and the anti-incumbent furor and vote for Chuck Devore. Campbell and Carly will lose to Boxer because people like me are tired of being screwed over by “practical” Republican candidates.