A longtime FlashReport reader (from the beginning!) and frequent commented Tom Kaptain, a friend of many years, has been a political operative and producer of targeted slate mail since 1995.  Tom’s slate cards promote candidates on both sides of the aisle — you’ll see a profile of his work when his slate’s drop, as we’ve done and will do with other prominent slate cards.  While Tom is (gasp) a Democrat, I reached out to him for his thoughts on the GOP gubernatorial primary because I have always been impressed with the depth and clarity of his comments on this blog over the years…  So, without any further introduction…

MY TAKE ON POIZNER V. WHITMAN IN THE CLOSING DAYS
By Tom Kaptain

Groucho Marx once said, "outside of a dog, a book is man’s best friend.  Inside of a dog, it’s too dark to read."
 
There would always be two ways at least to "read" the 2010 California primary contest for the Republican nomination for Governor between Business Executive Meg Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.
 
Number 1:  Follow the money, follow the polls and predict the outcome.
 
Number 2:  Know from history and California politics that when two serious well funded candidates face off, it’s not over until election day and the candidate with the momentum who peaks on June 8th is the true favorite, not the candidate with the early lead many months ago.
 
No one knows today or any day before June 8th who the Republican nominee will be.  Based on California political history, the nasty primary fight was predictable and certainly hasn’t hurt Jerry Brown.  But I don’t think either candidate has done a good job of making their case to voters or in separating themselves from their opponent.  However as someone who has been involved in politics for quite a while and knows both candidates, I think a clear choice is there and I think that even if a lot of voters haven’t yet decided, when they tune out the TV commercials which they tend to do over time, other campaign elements like ground and direct mail will probably wind up being the deciding factors. 

With so many voters confused by the campaigns so far, I think the personal approach or the targeted mail that lets voters know that the local leaders they already know and trust are supporting one of the candidates, will wind up being the difference in the election outcome.
 
So far both candidates have done just about what most people expected.  Steve Poizner has been coming up from way behind (which I predicted here three months ago) to make the race close and is doing a slightly better job than  Meg Whitman at getting a message out about the support he enjoys from prominent conservatives.   I would expect him to continue to follow the basic path he has been taking so far in his campaign.  But Meg Whitman with her numbers falling so dramatically,  is a different question.
 
A friend of mine, the late Frank Wells, President of the Disney Corporation is considered by Whitman who is a one time Disney employee,  to be her business mentor.  I know that Frank always believed it was important to empower customers to have input into key business decisions and that concept is one Meg took with her to Ebay and it played a major part in her success in making Ebay the wonderful company it is.  So I think Frank and most other people who know Meg’s business background and philosophy would be surprised that that she is now perceived as the elitist, out of touch candidate whose enormous lead has vanished with her disappearing connection to voters.
 
Her campaign has been top heavy with polling, while Meg in the business world always believed that numbers were not as important as listening to real people to understand what was really going on.   Last week Sarah Pompei who is Meg’s press secretary (and who is generally better than this) put down internet political pundits who tried to guess at Whitman’s strategy and critiqued her campaign online.  While she was at Ebay, Meg was the driving force behind making the Ebay community what it was and encouraging input from users,  making   sure that someone on her staff kept up with what customers were posting online about the site.  It’s a different approach and I am not saying any campaign should spend time in front of a computer reading blogs right now.  But the comment that Sarah made shows a defensiveness about what they are doing that doesn’t fit Meg’s personality and I think it is an example of why they have been losing their lead.
 
I produce slate mail and the fact that Meg Whitman hasn’t bought my slate cards may be influencing the way I see her campaign.  But I still think I am seeing a race with two possible outcomes.  Steve Poizner won’t change a thing from what he is doing.  His numbers have improved so dramatically that human nature kicks in and he will follow the script to the end.  It may be enough, because absent any real alternative from Team Whitman, his support will continue to grow if voters who are undecided find out he is endorsed by local conservative leaders they know and trust and also because those voters feel a little bit reassured because Steve has already held office and won’t be learning on the job like Arnold did.  But just as Steve’s strategy is almost definitely set in stone, so is it’s impact.  His message is not really that compelling, but would be successful if the Whitman campaign continues to not offer any real alternative.
 
The decisive question in this race I believe will be what Meg Whitman does with her campaign.  Meg is an outgoing person who can do a very good job of making her own case if she is allowed to do so. She is an amazing success story in many ways.  America’s first female billionaire, a former Disney executive who with Frank Wells played a key role in bringing Disney back to the forefront of America’s businesses (if you want to know how bad her campaign has been, ask any voter if they knew Meg was a key executive at Disney).  A woman who passed up numerous opportunities that would have payed her more money because she believed in the potential of a small start up company called Ebay and she claims to be running for office because she saw first hand how government hurt new businesses like Ebay.  Those are compelling reasons for someone to vote for her and if she is able to tell that story, I think she could very easily win the primary.  
 
But in their own way, both candidates have compelling stories.  When Steve Poizner ran for State Assembly, he could have aimed for something higher, but he thought he could make a real difference in Sacramento and rather than seeking a more prestigious office he was willing to challenge an incumbent for a safe Democratic seat.  If Steve had done his year teaching only  for political reasons, he could have done like a lot of candidates have done in the past and taught one day a week at a community college and still would have gotten the line on the resume to use in his TV commercials.  Instead he spent a year at a high school in a rough neighborhood, going to work every day.  That says something.  As Insurance Commissioner he has been known as an independent elected official who has been praised by people with different political viewpoints because he has come up with innovative solutions thinking outside the box.  Again, just like with Whitman, there are compelling reasons for voters to cast their ballots, but I don’t think his campaign has or will make that case especially since they are doing so well.
 
In Steve Poizners campaign, he has come from so far back that I think he will feel locked in.  He will continue to do television ads with probably one more hit on Meg and one more generic feel good piece on himself to round things out.  With his endorsements, especially the one by Tom McClintock and the rest of his background,  I think he will get 60% of the undecideds and win a close race at the end unless Meg does something different.  That is the real question here and I think the drama in this race for the last two weeks.  It is hard to change anything this late in a campaign.  Can Meg’s campaign change the way voters perceive her on such short notice after already failing to make an impact while spending 70 million dollars?  If they can do that,  I think they can win the race in the end.  I think a lot of Republican voters like the idea of supporting a successful female candidate beyond the very compelling story she has which I don’t think anyone knows.   But I also know it is very hard to add anything new to a campaign this late in terms of direction and it may not be possible.  She has a large staff that she pays good money to and in many ways this column is no different from when my basketball friends second guess Phil Jackson at Laker games.  In the end, what people think of the Whitman campaign will still come down to the results on election day and as I said earlier, there is no way to know those results until June 8th.  This is just a fun attempt (at Jon’s invitation) to give my take on what’s going on in the race.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.