I’ve been in politics a long time. So, count me jaded when a candidate puts out a press release that says "My poll says I’m ahead!"

Before I give any belief to a statement like that, I want to know what the questions were, how were all the candidates identified in the poll (it has to be what the ballot designation is likely to be – or it’s worthless), who is the pollster (has to be a respected one), and was this a “push” poll – where the opponents are cast in a negative light and the candidate in a positive one (these types of polls are a waste because they don’t reflect reality).

So, I was impressed when I got the email below from Senator George Runner – candidate for BOE.
 
Not only does it show George in the lead, but he gives us the questions that were asked, has very fair ballot designations of him and his opponents and the poll was done by Steve Kinney of Public Opinion Strategies – who I can personally vouch for as a top-flight pollster.

Poll Shows George Runner is Clear Frontrunner in BOE Race Sacramento

The results of a poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies show Senator/Taxpayer Advocate and Board of Equalization candidate George Runner as the clear frontrunner in the primary race for Board of Equalization.

The California Republican Primary Survey shows Runner was chosen by 56% of likely voters in the upcoming Republican primary, more than doubling the combined score of both of his opponents who each received 12% of the vote.

The survey also demonstrates the value of the endorsement from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to the Runner campaign.

Here is the question that was asked –

In the race for Board of Equalization, there are three different candidates. I would now like to read you a brief statement about each and have you tell me which one you personally would be most likely to vote for in the June Primary election based on the descriptions. Here are the descriptions. (RANDOMIZE)

Tax Payer Advocate/Senator George Runner is trusted and being supported by the well known Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

Board of Equalization Chief Deputy Barbara Alby has long worked with Board of Equalization member Bill Leonard, and Leonard is campaigning for Alby because of his confidence in her ability.

Physician and Board of Equalization Deputy Alan Nakanishi has the support of Board Member Michelle Park Steel because of his dedication to his job and to the people they serve.

Based on these statements, which candidate would you personally be most likely to vote for? (IF CHOICE, ASK:) And, would you DEFINITELY vote for (choice) based on the statements, or would you only PROBABLY vote for (choice)?

Combined Runner 56%
20% DEFINITELY RUNNER
36% PROBABLY RUNNER

Combined Alby 13%
4% DEFINITELY ALBY
9% PROBABLY ALBY

Combined Nakanishi 12%
2% DEFINITELY NAKANISHI
10% PROBABLY NAKANISHI

18% DON’T KNOW/UNDECIDED (DNR)
1% REFUSED (DNR)

The poll was conducted in early February 2010.

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My analysis is that George Runner has this commanding lead for a few reasons:

1)   In elections past, having the ballot designation of "Board of Equalization Deputy" that both Barbara Alby and Alan Nakanishi share has been very helpful getting votes.  But in this case they likely split those votes.

2)   Barbara and Alan come from generally the same part of this massive district and split their base.  George is all alone in the southern part.

3)   In this election, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association endorsement is a MAJOR asset.

There’s been much hype about exactly who has the slate mailers – the word has been that Alan Nakanishi had them all locked down.  But a little calling around shows that Runner and Nakanishi have about the same amount booked.  I don’t know how many Alby has – but she’s a smart campaigner and I’m sure she’s booked a few.

For the record – I’ve not endorsed any of the three candidates.  I don’t live in the district and my endorsement doesn’t mean much anyway.  I know all three candidates personally and I like them all.  Any of the three would make a fine member of the Board of Equalization – so taxpayers aren’t going to lose, no matter who wins.

But, from a purely objective view – to me, it looks good for George Runner.

This entry was posted on Saturday, February 20th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.