This may come as a surprise to some, but perhaps not to all — but State Senator Abel Maldonado, 
while fairly well known by Republicans, is not well liked by Republicans. Gee, I wonder why? Could it be his deciding vote to smack every Californian with higher income, sales and car taxes?
I have just reviewed a statewide survey for the Lt. Governor GOP primary taken by Smith Johnson Research, of 500 likely Republican primary voters and on a first ballot test, the results are pretty clear. When those surveyed were asked for whom they would vote for Lt. Governor, they responded:
FIRST BALLOT
Aanestad 20.4
Maldonado 16.0
Undecided
This survey also showed that Maldonado’s unfavorable ratings are more that 2:1 greater than his positives among GOP primary voters.
That said, when voters are presented with a few simple facts, including his deciding vote for the tax increases, and that he was appointed Lt. Governor by Arnold Schwarzenegger,and that Sen. Aanestad is supported by a long list of conservative leaders including Congressman Tom McClintock, guess what happens to the numbers?
SECOND BALLOT
Aanestad 64.7
Maldonado 17.0
Undecided 16.9
Tim Rosales, strategist for the Aanestad for Lieutenant Governor campaign summarized, “Unless Abel can re-write history and take back his tax increase votes, he will not win a Republican primary. Republican voters want candidates that act like Republicans, particularly when it comes to taxes and spending.
“It is also a clear indicator from the first ballot question where voters are just given names and job titles, that the Republican voters that know Abel really don’t like him. Candidates that have inverted approve/disapprove numbers starting out don’t have a strong history of success.”
This, of course, is positive news because it means that Republican voters are engaged and paying attention. It is going to be very difficult for Maldonado to succeed in his quest for the GOP nomination for Lt. Governor when the contrast between his voting record (one of increasing government taxation and spending) is compared starkly to that of Senator Sam Aanestad, who has been a fiscal conservative his entire legislative career.
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
The false premise which Mr. “Off the Rails” parrots is that only a Liberal Republican
can win statewide office in California. That claim is so much rubbish.
Ronald Reagan and George Deukmejian ran and won as conservatives. Pete Wilson
as a moderate conservative, and CANDIDATE Arnold in 2003 ran as Center-Right.
When Liberal GOP icon Tom Campbell was the Senate nominee against Dianne
Feinstein in 2000, Campbell lost to her by over TWO MILLION votes! (2,045,669
to be exact).
Mr. Maldonado HAS been on a statewide ballot before (2006) seeking the GOP
nomination for State Controller. He lost to the Hon. Tony Strickland.
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
So, Rohit, you would rather elect a Democrat (who will sit and vote on numerous boards and commissions) then elect a Republican who can see when the state is in dire straits and that a TEMPORARY tax increase is necessary? For myself, I’d rather see a Republican with whom I agree 80 percent of the time in office than a Democrat with whom I will never agree in office. But to each is own opinion.
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
Abel signed a pledge never to vote for a tax increase but voted to increase taxes earlier this year nonetheless. Not only that, but he sold his budget vote to get the “top two” primary on the ballot, which would prevent Republicans from choosing their own nominees, a patently self-serving action. He knows (and these poll numbers show it) that he could never win a Republican primary, even if DTS voters are also allowed to participate, so he’s trying to change the rules for his benefit.
It’s good to see that Republicans are unwilling to support such an unprincipled, self-serving, politican.
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
There you go again, Jon, off the rails to the far far right. If Abel is not the Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, you can kiss that statewide constitutional office good-by too (along with the Governor’s office). So if you think that Abel’s vote to temporarily increase taxes to fill a budget hole was a bad thing, just wait until the Democrats – including a Democrat Governor in 2011 – increase what they will call fees.
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
I think the problem is Tom Campbell is anti-gun and I had people in my county Republican GOTV who refused to pass any of his literature when we were walking precincts. I think a base not happy with him was one reason why he lost. Also people think Feinstein is more centrist, but she is not.
Problem is you have to make sure your base is not demotivated in helping you get elected. If your base is demotivated you are toast. MA Special election for the Democratic Party was a clear example.
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:00 am
There are only a couple of problems with that poll. First, there is no indication of how many voters know either candidate. The first number simply shows that Republicans are a little less likely to support an unknown Hispanic than an unknown Anglo and the second results are after a push poll. It would be a little more telling if someone took a poll where they passed out paper ballots with the ballot titles included which would have Maldonado as acting Lt. Governor, especially since it is my understanding that he will be able to use that title in the primary even if the legislature doesn’t confirm him.
January 23rd, 2010 at 12:00 am
Mr. Kaptain and Mr. Munson:
Excellent points made by both of you.
Mr. Fleischman may have the exact wording of the poll,
and will know whether the ballot titles were used.
Matt Munson’s words about demotivating the bass should
be posted over the door of every GOP HQ in the state:
” If your base is demotivated you are toast. “
January 24th, 2010 at 12:00 am
Bob, Abel Maldonado scored 22 percent on the most recent CRA scorecard, not anywhere close to 80 percent.
I agree with Ronald Reagan that someone who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is an 80 percent friend not a 20 percent enemy, but when someone disagrees with you 80 percent of the time the enemy part tends to dominate.