From today’s WSJ Political Diary E-mail…

Bye Bye, Boxer?

California’s Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer’s days in the Senate may be numbered. After representing the Golden State for 18 years, Ms. Boxer is finally facing a formidable field of GOP opponents.

In a newly released Rasmussen poll, Ms. Boxer holds a narrow lead over her three potential GOP challengers, but her lead’s shrinking fast. Ms. Boxer tops former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by 46-43, former congressman Tom Campbell (who just switched from the governor’s race last week) 46-42, and state assemblyman Chuck DeVore 46-40. As voters become more familiar with the Republican candidates, Ms. Boxer’s numbers seem likely to fall even farther. Ms. Boxer is well known, but 26% of voters say they are unsure what they think about Ms. Fiorina while 28% say the same about Mr. Campbell and 37% about Mr. DeVore. The fact that Ms. Boxer’s numbers are frozen at 46% suggests the 2010 race will likely be a referendum on her liberal voting record.

At a fundraiser last week, Ms. Fiorina called Ms. Boxer a "failed senator" who couldn’t even get her bills enacted because other senators wouldn’t work with her. She noted that Ms. Boxer has only had three bills turned into law, compared to 26 for fellow California Senator Dianne Feinstein. At another fundraiser, Ms. Fiorina said: "Unlike Barbara Boxer, I will do good instead of harm and create jobs for unemployed Californians, clear regulations that tax small businesses, stop sending citizens’ money to Washington and attack the half-trillion dollar documented waste."

Because of her strong funding advantage and business experience, Ms. Fiorina is regarded as the Republican favorite. However, because California’s primaries are closed, she could be upstaged by Mr. DeVore, who is favored by hard-line conservatives but probably wouldn’t arouse much moderate support in the general election. All three were quick to predict that last night’s Massachusetts’ upset would prove a harbinger for Ms. Boxer. Said Ms. Fiorina: "This news out of Massachusetts tonight is not good news for Barbara Boxer. Over the last 18 years, she has repeatedly taken California voters for granted and cast votes that have cost Californians jobs, increased our taxes and contributed to the rapid increase in our national debt."

Ms. Boxer’s best hope is for Ms. Fiorina and Mr. Campbell to split the moderate and Bay Area vote, leaving Mr. DeVore as the GOP candidate. This scenario is not implausible, and explains why Ms. Fiorina’s first agenda may be to drive Mr. Campbell out of the primary race by outspending him early. That’s exactly how fellow candidates Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner precipitated Mr. Campbell’s exit from the GOP gubernatorial contest.

— Allysia Finley

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 20th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.