[Cross-posted from RedCounty.com]
As has been reported here and elsewhere, it seems fairly certain that former Congressman and state Senator Tom Campbell will abandon the governor’s race and run for U.S. Senate instead.
Query: does it really matter?
In my opinion, the practical result of Campbell’s decision is he’ll finish third in the U.S. Senate primary instead finishing third in the gubernatorial primary. 2010 is going to be a year of voter discontent and back-lash. An under-funded, mild-mannered economic professor who supported extending last year’s massive state tax increase is ill-suited to ride that wave. Campbell’s chances largely depend on the unlikelihood of lightning striking his campaign — and i think he probably stood a better chance of that in the gubernatorial campaign on the off-chance that Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner nuked each each into oblivion à la Al Checchi and Jane Harman in 1998 (with Campbell hoping to reprise the role of Gray Davis).
As for his impact on the U.S. Senate primary, I think Campbell’s entry helps Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the favorite of conservative grass roots. To the extent he picks up voters who have already expressed a preference, I think the moderate Campbell will draw from Carly Fiorina because she is perceived as the moderate in the campaign — although she is demonstrably to the right of Campbell.
In the end, however, I think Campbell is simply changing his mind about which statewide GOP primary he is going to lose.
You can read the rest of the post here.
January 13th, 2010 at 12:00 am
I would strongly support him running for state treasurer instead. It could be an office that even Mr.Cunningham could vote him for.