In my brief post last night, I indicated that the race for the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Congressman George Radanovich was a complete tossup, given the existence of two strong candidates from just outside the North end of the District, former Congressman Richard Pombo, and State Senator Jeff Denham, and two strong Fresno area candidates, former Secretary of State Bill Jones and former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson.

That list of strong Fresno area candidates is now down to one, as Bill Jones has indicated that he is NOT running.  This development elevates the candidacy of Jim Patterson and should cause some consternation for Pombo and Denham.

Pombo is a conservative’s conservative with a great ag and natural resources pedigree, but he lives outside the district and is relatively unknown to Fresno area voters, other than powerful Westside farming interests.  He can raise the money to be competitive, but he isn’t a populist, and his issue strengths, while considerable, are not the type to drive turnout in his direction.

Water supplies are a critical issue in the 19th Congressional District, but voter energy in the 2010 campaign will be diirected as financial issues, debt, deficits and taxes. 

Denham, as an incumbent legislator, has decent name id throughout the district but does not live in the 19th.  His status as an incumbent legislator will NOT be an asset to him the campaign, as he has a fresh record to pick apart and there some State budget votes he has cast he would probably rather have back.  He’s conservative enough, but being from a marginal Republican State Senate District, he’s had to build a more moderate record to survive poltically.  

I see Denham and Pombo dividing much of the vote in the North area.

Patterson, without the emergence of another strong Fresno area name, now has a clearer shot at the nomination.  His task is to organize the conservative evangelical community in the North, tap into his natural advantages in the "Tea Party" movement, and stay on the phones raising money, which will be his most significant challenge.  Fresno area voters know him as a competent Mayor, despite a failed attempt to recall him, and as a radio host on KMJ 580.  He’ll get a significant share of the local vote here.

While there are no "sure things" in politics, Jones withdrawel today is a plus for Patterson, and gives north Fresno its only viable opportunity to be represented in Congress.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 6th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.