As the New Year begins, I have been reflecting on politics, my role in it, and the direction of the state.  About a year ago, right after the election of Obama, I was approached by a fellow who said he could make me President, and he asked for me to give me a plan to accomplish that.  I showed him the plan, and although he failed to meet the benchmarks I set for setting up a run (there goes my Presidential ambitions), a lot of the presumptions I made for such a run to work have been coming true.

First, I am convinced 2010 will be a Republican year IF (and I mean a really big IF) Republicans don’t screw things up.  It will have nothing to do with the ascendancy of those principles that many Republicans espouse in office in American society (because sometimes it appears that Republican officeholders don’t believe in those principles), it will be because Democrats overrreached.  I have a number of "truths of American politics" (which I should write down sometime), but one of them is this–Democrats really believe in the principles they espouse, and they alienate voters doing exactly what they promised they would do when they were trying to get elected.  The corollary to that truth is that Republican get elected when they espouse Republican principles, but most officeholders don’t really believe in those principles, so Republicans alienate voters by never doing what they promised they would do when they were trying to get elected.  Republicans lost power in 2006 because they wouldn’t do what they promised to do when they got elected in 1994.  Democrats will lose power in 2010 because they are doing exactly what they promised they would do in the last election.

2010 will be a Republican year no matter what.  It is very similar in many ways to 1994: (1) it is an nonpresidential election year, which tends to help Republicans; (2) Voters really dislike Democrats right now; (3) Republican leadership has been drowned out, just like it was in 1994, so voters are not angry with them yet; (4) Independents are realizing what a mistake they made with Obama, just like they did after they elected Bill Clinton in 1992; (5) Democrats are, once again, arrogantly pursuing an agenda that is out of touch with the electorate.  In California, we have a Governor’s election coming up where all of the candidates (except for one) are strongly pursuing a conservative small government agenda, and they all have deep pockets.  The end result will be well financed campaigns, and, if the candidates remain focused on the right agenda, next year at this time could be a big party in Sacramento and Washington for Republicans.

That being said, there are still plenty of things that could go wrong. Republicans can still screw things up.  With that in mind, here are my predictions.

 Barbara Boxer will lose her seat this year.  In 1994, Michael Huffington almost beat Diane Feinstein, and Barbara Boxer is no Diane Feinstein.  Republicans only challenge in this case is that the candidates, Chuck DeVore and Carly Fiorina each have their own unique sets of issues.  Chuck is great on the principles that drive the activists in the party, but he lacks fundraising skill and, quite frankly, lacks "gravitas" as they call it in the media.  Fiorina, on the other hand, has absolutely no political identity at all.  Voters will not vote for someone they do not know, and activists will definitely not work for them.  My advice for each candidate-Chuck, shed your tendency towards nerdiness and raise money–Carly, do all you can to define yourself as a small government conservative, don’t listen to those consultants who will be telling you to stay vanilla on the issues.  Step out and define yourself.  You can win if activists and voters are comfortable with who you are.

For Governor, it will come down to Poizner or Whitman (I like Tom Campbell on a personal level, but there are reasons why Democrats really want Tom to be our nominee.  Tom has always been one of those Republican officeholders who think that Republicans are wrong on the issues).  Poizner and Whitman have deep pockets, and can finance a solid media effort, as well as a well financed ground effort.  A well financed media effort will remind everyone that it really was Jerry Brown who screwed up this state, and we have been paying for it in our housing costs, our poor schools, our overcrowded freeways, our water costs, and our decaying prisons ever since.  The ground effort will lead a re-energized California Republican Party to victory in the election.  The only issue will be what kind of coattails they have on election day.  That will depend on whether they inspire the Republican rank and file, or whether they turn them off.  Consultants will do everything they can to turn off the Republican rank and file.  It will be up to the candidates to reject that bad advice, and lead the party to a conservative victory in November.

Congress–Republicans should regain control of Congress this year.  The blueprint?  1994.  Another Contract with America–only this time follow it.  Don’t return to the spending sprees that occurred between 2000 and 2006.

Legislature–the 2001 redistricting plan makes getting a majority difficult, but it is possible.  The problem?  There are no Jim Brulte’s in charge of the election operation.  Jim was a political mind without peer in Republican circles, his political instincts were always right.  I was there to help on policy initiatives, but Jim knew what to do in 1994 to get the majority.  We do not have that kind of insight in either our consultants or officeholders in Sacramento right now.  That is not to speak ill of those in charge, it is just the way it is.  A majority in the Assembly is a long shot, but it can be done.  3 or 4 seats should be automatic.

What will interfere with the historical certainty of a good Republican year?  Another tax increase proposal by Schwarzenegger.  Capitulation to the Obama agenda in Washington.  Any move by anyone at the top of the California ticket, or in leadership in Sacramento or Washington to alienate the major Republican constituency groups.  The pro-family, pro-gun, anti-tax, small government conservatives seem to be the first ones the party abandons when the press goes after them for actually having beliefs.  Look at Matt Fong.  According to insiders, Matt lost 18 points in 3 days (from 9 points ahead of Barbara Boxer to 9 points down) when he came out for the homosexual agenda.  The result?  A disaster for him and the entire Republican ticket in 1998 (Lungren might have done better if either he or Fong had been a better candidate).  This is the year to thank those Republican constituency groups by giving homage to the principles those groups hold dear.  Of course, that means those candidates should actually follow those principles when they are elected, but to reject those principles before the election is even held is certain defeat.

Those are my predictions this year.  I am encouraged by the mood of the electorate, and discouraged by those we elect to leadership.  The principles I hold dear are dissed everyday by the people Republicans elect to represent them in elections.  If those candidates actually took the time to persuade people that Republican principles were right, they would create a permanent Republican majority.  Unfortunately, Republican leaders spend their time distancing themselves from Republican principles.  As a result, the people who spend hours trying to get these leaders elected become disenchanted, and Republicans lose power.  People then get angry at Democrats, put the Republicans back in power, and then hope against hope that this time the Republicans will get it right.  Republicans will be back in power at this time next year.  This time, I hope they get it right too.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 4th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.