Today State Senator Jeff Denham shared with the Modesto Bee that he is dropping out of the race for the GOP nomination for Lt. Governor and is instead running for the 25th State Assembly seat currently occupied by Tom Berryhill, who has announced that is running for State Senate (the seat currently occupied by Dave Cogdill, who is retiring).

For the Assembly seat, this pits Denham against former Modesto Councilwoman Janice Keating. While Modesto is the largest city in the Assembly District, Denham's entry into the race makes him a clear front runner. His name ID is undoubtedly through the roof. Not only has he represented much of this district in the Senate for many years, but has also been actively campaigning for LG for over a year. And let's not forget the massive name ID that will come from the failed recall attempt orchetrated by former Senate President Don Perata.

Of course, Denham is also aided by gaving a campaign bank account flush with cash. We're going to assume that Denham is not likely to offer refunds to donors who thought they were staking a candidate for statewide office. Denham will have to move into the 25th Assembly District — his current family home is not within that district's boundaries.

The big question that everyone will now ask is “why” — after all, Denham is already a seasoned veteran of the legislature's “upper” house, and despite the recent entry of Senator Maldonado into the GOP primary for Lt. Governor, Denham remained the front-runner. It could be that Denham was privy to polling data showing him losing to Maldonado or his other opponent, Senator Sam Aanestad.

The 25th District is a solid GOP seat, which may ultimately provide some insight into Denham's decision. If Denham wins the AD 25 GOP primary, he will be elected to the Assembly in November. In the LG race, there was no guarantee that he would win the GOP nomination — and of course any Republican running statewide in California has to know that winning the general election will be very challenging.

This move by Denham sets the table for a Maldonado-Aanestad showdown for the GOP nod for LG. If (and its a big IF right now) Aanestad can take advantage of this news to lock down the bulk of Denhams former suppoters, and raise some money, he will become the front runner. IF Aanestad can raise enough money to educate the electorate about Maldonado's terrrible voting record (including his infamous role in passing the largest tax increase in the history of any state) he will likely win the nomination.

If Aanestad cannot stop Maldonado, you ironically may have two of the six Quisling Republicans who are responsible for last February's $16 billion increase in state sales, income and car taxes, with former Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines running, uncontested, for the GOP nomination for Insurance Commissioner.

But if Maldonado raises cash while Aanestad flounders, Maldonado has a very real shot at the nomination (he's then have the added challenge of trying to garner conservative votes in the General Election).

If Aanestad cannot stop Maldonado, you ironically may have two of the six Quisling Republicans who are responsible for last February's $16 billion increase in state sales, income and car taxes, with former Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines running, uncontested, for the GOP nomination for Insurance Commissioner.

In closing let me say this. I like Jeff personally — he's articulate and he has the moxie, on those issues of passion to him, to charge the hill guns ablaze. Aanestad is much more subdued personality wise, and Maldonado has immaturity issues. The landscape of statewide GOP candidates took a hit with Denhams understandable decision.

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 10th, 2009 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.