This campaign memo has been buzzing around Team Whitman, and has made its way to the public square (clever technique, mentioning "prominent bloggers" by name in the memo — nice — it was forwarded to me many times over by FR friends on Meg’s campaign team)!
TO: Campaign Leadership
FROM: Jeff Randle, Senior Advisor, Henry Gomez, Senior Advisor
DATE: November 20, 2009
RE: State of the Race Update
With less than a year until Californians vote to elect the Golden State’s next Governor, we wanted to give you an inside perspective on Meg’s campaign. From a strategic perspective, Meg often talks about the campaign, not just as a function of polling or public speculation, but rather as a team that is executing against a strategy. Our analysis of the race-to-date is shaped by a campaign plan that is designed to win a contested Republican primary and then a hard-fought general election.
With that in mind, as you’ll see by a number of key measures, Republican voters are increasingly showing support for Meg’s candidacy and her commitment to grow jobs, cut spending and improve California’s public schools. And our campaign has met, or far exceeded, all of the key benchmarks for success.
Here is an update on key measures of the campaign’s success:
Independent Polling:
Late this week, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll showing that Meg’s campaign is catching momentum among all Californians. In a head-to-head match-up, Meg is tied with Jerry Brown, the only Democrat in the race. Her Republican rivals each lose to Brown by about 10-point margins. This survey also shows Meg beating Brown with independent voters, an important benchmark for any Republican nominee’s ability to win a general election against a well-known Democratic opponent. This is more clear evidence that Californians are attracted to Meg’s focused vision for California.
Two independent public polls taken in October showed Meg surging to a commanding lead in the Republican primary. These polls reported that Meg was favored by more than one-third of Republican primary voters. The Capitol Weekly/Probolsky survey of 750 likely voters reported that Meg led her opponent Tom Campbell by 22 points and Steve Poizner by 30 points. Specifically, the Capitol Weekly/Probolsky poll showed, "Meg Whitman captures 36.7% of our Republican Primary Election ballot test for 2010 Governor – a dramatic increase of 26.5% since our last survey. This indicates Whitman is the clear leader among Republican candidates, placing her 22% ahead of Tom Campbell. Steve Poizner trails Whitman and Campbell, with 5.9%.”
Another public poll, by the Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California, surveyed 1500 registered voters and showed Meg ahead of Campbell by 8 points and Poizner by 25 points. These polls accurately reflect our own research conducted this month that confirms Meg’s momentum and shows her leading Campbell by 20 points and Poizner by 27 points. While it’s still very early in this campaign, these results show California Republicans are responding positively to Meg’s vision for moving California in a new direction.
High-Profile Endorsements:
Since Meg entered the race, she has earned and announced an unrivaled coalition of local, state and national Republican Party leaders. Former Governor Pete Wilson chairs Meg’s campaign along with co-chairs, Congressman Kevin McCarthy, Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack, State Senator Tony Strickland, Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher and former Assemblywoman Sharon Runner. In recent months, Meg has added 2002 GOP Gubernatorial nominee Bill Simon as a statewide co-chair and announced the high-profile endorsements of Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan. Since July 1, Meg has announced new endorsements of 55 mayors, former mayors, county supervisors and local council members.
Winning The Fundraising Primary:
The first milestone of a gubernatorial election is the fundraising primary. Through hard work and a significant investment of time, Meg has become one of America’s premier GOP fundraisers. From February through June, Meg raised over $6.7 million. Since then, Meg has continued to lead all of her opponents in fundraising. Although the next reporting period is not until the end of the year, candidates are required to report contributions of $5,000 or more on a regular basis. In that category, Meg far outpaces the Republican candidates for governor for contributions received between July 1 and mid-November. (These numbers do not account for Meg’s $15 million
contribution to the campaign in mid-July.)
Meg Whitman: $1,687,582
Steve Poizner: $273,600
Tom Campbell: $195,000
Additionally, in October, the campaign named more than 90 new finance chairs. They include some of the most prominent donors in the Republican Party, including Ambassador George Argyros, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Arnel & Affiliates, Ambassador Howard Leach, President of Leach Capital, and General William Lyon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of William Lyon Homes, Inc. Ambassador Argyros, General Lyon, Michael K. Hayde, Chief Executive Officer of Western National Group and Donald Bren, Chairman of the Irvine Company, also recently hosted a huge fundraising dinner for Meg in Orange County.
Paid Media:
Meg was the first, and only, candidate to launch a series of statewide radio ads. The ads have begun introducing Meg and her plan for rebuilding California to Republican primary voters. The ads began running on September 22, and there are five unique ads that have been released so far. These ads are designed to be interactive and encourage listeners to send their ideas directly to Meg at TalkToMeg.com. Weekly traffic to MegWhitman.com has increased over 100 percent since the ads began airing. The statewide radio campaign is the first phase in a comprehensive media campaign planned through the election.
Issues:
Meg continued establishing herself as the most credible candidate on the issues that matter most to Californians. She weighed in on key legislative developments, including the state budget, cutting bureaucracy and opposing the early release of prisoners. Also, she was the first candidate to call for a comprehensive solution to California’s water crisis.
In October, the campaign introduced its distinguished Economic Advisory Team, including Marc Andreessen, cofounder, Netscape; Michael J. Boskin, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; John Chambers, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Cisco Systems; John F. Cogan, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Bill Simon, co-chairman, William E. Simon and Sons, LLC; Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin; John B. Taylor, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Former Governor Pete Wilson; and Julie Meier Wright, Former California Secretary of Trade and Commerce.
Statewide Grassroots Organization:
The campaign rolled out leaders of its Agriculture, Public Safety, Veterans and Latino coalitions. Members include dozens of prominent Republican business, civic and law enforcement leaders. The campaign also announced its grassroots leadership team consisting of 86 regional and county chairs and co-chairs representing every county in the state. These leaders include longtime Republican activists and newcomers to grassroots activities, men and women who have been inspired by Meg’s vision for A New California. Her grassroots team is actively engaged across the state laying the necessary groundwork for vital GOTV efforts. The results are already paying off; over the summer and fall, she has drawn significant crowds at the numerous grassroots events she’s attended throughout the state, from north to south.
Organization:
Meg has attracted proven political advisors who have won at the state and national level and have worked at the top evels of government and business. Her campaign is fully functioning and includes political, policy, communications, coalitions, finance and online-media departments. Her team includes former top campaign advisers to California Governors Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger and GOP presidential candidates John McCain, Mitt Romney and President George W. Bush. Her closest political and communications advisors have worked with Meg for years.
Investment In The California Republican Party:
Meg has demonstrated that she not only understands the importance of building the Republican Party, she has invested time and energy to help raise money for the entire Republican ticket. She also recognized that the deterioration in Republican registration in the state jeopardized the success of all Republican constitutional and legislative candidates in 2010. Therefore, in September, Meg wrote a check for $250,000 to the California Republican Party so they could immediately begin registering voters to begin closing the 13.5% registration gap with the Democrats. Meg is the only Republican candidate to make a substantial investment in the California Republican Party this year.
Media Attention:
Since August, Meg has had interviews with Time Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Wired Magazine, CNBC’s Larry Kudlow, Fox’s Neil Cavuto and Fox’s Live Desk. She’s done interviews with several highprofile California radio talk show hosts, including John and Ken, Ronn Owens, Patt Morrison, Hugh Hewitt, Eric Hogue and Chris Reed. She’s done more than three dozen interviews with television reporters in all of the state’s major media markets. She has had one-on-one interviews with top political reporters and bloggers, including The Orange County Register’s Martin Wisckol, San Diego Union-Tribune’s John Marelius, The Fresno Bee’s John Ellis, Red County’s Matt Cunningham and FlashReport’s Jon Fleischman.
Why Meg Is Positioned To Win The Primary And The Months Ahead:
Meg’s message and credibility are her greatest assets in this election. However, Meg’s statewide organization, institutional endorsements, fundraising prowess and her status in the polls have also outpaced her opponents and put Meg in the best position to win in 2010. Meg’s energy on the campaign trail has been netting results, and we’re moving with strength into the new year.
Conversely in 2009, Steve Poizner’s polling numbers among Republicans have lingered in single digits, it’s been months since he’s announced any major endorsements, and his lack of fundraising and committed resources raises serious questions about the viability of his candidacy.
The fact is that winning the governorship in California requires early fundraising and methodical planning. You can’t wake up right before the election and decide it’s time to play. Poizner’s commitment to the race remains questionable. Meg’s commitment is undeniable. She has fully devoted her time, energy and resources to ensuring a Republican victory in 2010. Her supporters and Californians expect nothing less.
Thank you for everything you are doing for Meg. We look forward to a great 2010.
November 21st, 2009 at 12:00 am
I always knew Californian Republican primary voters were uninformed…..the Whitman “surge” proves it….
What we have here is the “Huffington Effect”……throw lots of money behind a hopelessly flawed candidate destined to flame out once the twitter of Jerry Brown’s machine cranks just a itsy bitsy bit!
Flash Report Junkies: Who are you that are so stupido as usual..who are you?
November 21st, 2009 at 12:00 am
Robert,
I agree with your assessment of Meg. So what do we do. Poizner and Campbell may even be worse. I am trying to find a reason to stay in California beyond the 2010 election and I have lived here for 60 years.
November 21st, 2009 at 12:00 am
Larry…..you gotta alert the base here! We have been had all these years….
The name of the game is keeping the same stodgy, bloated ilk in the California Republican Party machine in jobs, pensions, perks and the glow chasing delusional grandeur….rock star executives, movie stars and long time political operatives.
Cut off all funding and “go rogue”