The ink is hardly dry on the proclamation signed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appointing John J. Benoit to the Riverside County Board of Supervisors. Benoit was tapped to fill a vacancy created when the incumbent Supervisor vacated his seat due to an illness that shortly thereafter claimed his life. While I could devote an entire column to why a newly elected member of the California State Senate would seek to be appointed to county office instead, let’s just say for our purposes that this is exactly what happened.
Very soon, Governor Schwarzenegger will be signing yet another proclamation – this one calling 
for a special election to fill the vacancy created in the 37th Senate seat – open due to the departure of Senator Benoit. While trying to map out the date of the special election isn’t a precise science, in all likelihood there would be special primary election in mid-January, and if no one gets more than 50% of the vote, then a runoff general election a few weeks later. Senate District 37 is the 10th largest in the State of California and encompasses more than 4,800 square miles. It is located entirely within Riverside County and has over 846,000 residents. Spanning vastly from the Orange County border on the west all of the way to the state line to the East, it takes hours to drive the full distance. Cities or communities that are all or partially in the district include Anza, Banning, Beaumont, Bermuda Dunes, Cabazon, Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Cherry Valley, Corona, Desert Hot Springs, East Hemet, El Cerrito, Hemet, Home Gardens, Homeland, Idyllwild, Indian Wells, La Quinta, Lake Elsinore, Lakeland Village, Lakeview, March AFB, Menifee, Moreno Valley, Norco, Nuevo, Palm Desert, Palm Springs, Perris, Rancho Mirage, San Jacinto, Valle Vista, Winchester, and Woodcrest.
The 37th is considered a “safe” Republican seat with GOP registration significantly exceeding that of Democrats. Arguably last year was about as bad as it gets for Republicans, with President Obama performing very well in California — still Benoit easily one election in November by nearly full ten percentage points.
Much will be written in the coming days and weeks about the political landscape in what will be a short and intense campaign to replace Benoit. This will be my modest attempt to “set the table” as I look at the initial lay of the land. As of now, most of the talk of candidates and potential candidates has focused on several current Assemblymembers. The decade of nested Assembly Districts being long a part of the history books, a lot of Assembly Districts overlaps portions of the 37th.
Let’s start out by taking a couple of potential candidates out of play, as they have decided not to run for the Senate – Assemblyman Kevin Jeffries (who tweeter his lack of intention earlier today) and Assemblyman Brian Nestande who shared with me this evening his decision not to run in the special election.
This leaves only one Assemblyman likely to run who actually represents a sizable portion of SD 37, Jeff Miller (pictured) whose 71st Assembly District overlaps about one-fifth of the Senate District, and slightly more than that percentage of Republican voters. Freshman Assemblyman Miller is very popular in his west Riverside County base, having served for many years on the City Council and as Mayor of Corona, which is also the largest city (by population) in the 37th District. Miller, a former long-time, successful Chairman of the Riverside County Republican Party, is well regarded for his ability to raise money. As someone who follows elections closely, I can tell you that he exceeded all expectations with his stellar fundraising for his successful bid for the Assembly last year. Miller’s thriving Farmers Insurance practice garnered him a lot of contacts locally, as well as healthy amount of support out of Sacramento from the Insurance industry side.
While only currently representing what could be characterized as an “itsy bitsy sliver” of the 37th Senate District, Assemblyman Bill Emmerson, whose largely San Bernardino County-based 63rd Assembly District does come into the city of Hemet, is definitely “all in” for a run in this special election. I spoke with Bill earlier today, who was very clear, “Jon, I am a candidate for the 37th district. I will be campaigning hard right from the outset and believe I have a compelling case to make to voters as to why I can best represent them in the Senate.”
No slouch at fundraising, Emmerson (pictured) scored a narrow but impressive victory in a hotly contested three-way primary for his current Assembly seat back in 2004. Emmerson, who definitely comes to the dance as the more moderate candidate in the field, bested two ideological right-wingers in that primary. Emmerson’s nearly five years in the Assembly have borne out that image of him – an expose on legislative “party loyalty” that ran in the Sacramento Bee last week rating Emmerson the dubious distinction of being the fourth most likely Assembly Republican (out of 29) to vote against his party’s position on legislation (doing so slightly over 12% of the time). Emmerson, an orthodontist by profession, had his practice in Hemet (which is in the 37th District) for over two decades and plans on moving back to that city right away as he prepares his run. It is important to note that key to Emmerson’s first election was financial support from the California Dental Association out of Sacramento.
Also on the radar with the potential to mix it up in this primary is former Assemblyman Russ Bogh. 
Bogh (pictured) ran in a spirited primary last year for this very Senate seat – and while he spent a vast sum of money to try and beat Benoit, Bogh not only lost, but by such a large margin that many were embarrassed for him. That said, in a three-way primary, if Bogh could run a campaign that is focused on getting those Republicans who voted for him last year to cast a ballot for him in this special election, that might be enough to win this primary.
Someone suggested to me that former Palm Springs Chief of Police and 2008 GOP Assembly nominee in the 80th District, Gary Jeandron, might throw his hat into the ring. He would have a tough job ahead to become a contender. His entry into the race becomes more likely if Bogh jumps in, and suddenly Jeandron could compete in a four-way GOP race.
On the natural, Jeff Miller would enter this special election as the front runner. His actual current representation of a large part of the district, and the fact it is always helpful to be the ideological conservative in a primary (probably the most recent example of the ideological split between the two would be Miller, citing fiscal concerns and increased government regulations, voting against an $11 billion water bond package was actually supported by Emmerson. Emmerson’s support of the open primary measure on the coming June ballot also contrasts with Miller’s opposition.) Of course Miller’s credentials as former party Chairman don’t hurt. As a practical matter, both Miller and Emmerson would both raise enough funds to be competitive, but the short time window, in my opinion, advantages Miller.
That said, there are a few external factors out there that will significantly impact this special election. The first and most critical is what kind of resources will be brought to bear out of the 
industry-based interest groups that are tied to each candidate. In the case of Miller, there isn’t an interest group in Sacramento with a greater reputation for working hard to elect “their own” to the legislature than the Insurance folks. Farmers themselves are major players, and as I mentioned above Miller is one of their agents. In addition, the Insurance “umbrella” group – the Personal Insurance Federation – also are politically savvy and have the capacity for making major political expenditures when they are so inclined. 
Emmerson benefits from the fact that the California Dental Association has, in recent years, been very aggressive and generous with their dollars. The outgoing incumbent in this Senate seat, John Benoit, was a beneficiary of their generosity in his primary last year. Emmerson, a former leader of the CDA, will no doubt get a lot of help from his industry PAC.
Another factor will be local endorsements. Will Benoit endorse a candidate to replace him? Will the popular former State Senator Jim Battin, who represented this district for eight years until last December, weigh in? What about Assemblymen Jeffries or Nestande? Or for that matter, Congresswoman Mary Bono or Congressmen Ken Calvert or Darrell Issa? We presume that Senate Republican Leader Dennis Hollingsworth, whose district neighbors this one, will likely sit out the primary, waiting to ensure the ultimate primary winner out-polls the potential Democrat.
I suppose it is worth a mention that a Miller-Emmerson show-down would pit two of California’s preeminent political consultants against one another, with Miller being represented by Dave Gilliard, and Emmerson by Jim Nygren. For good measure, if Bogh does jump in, he likely would have as his consultant Steve Presson.
Over the years I have gotten to know both Emmerson and Miller (I worked closely with Miller in my capacity as Vice Chairman, South of the California Republican Party when he was Riverside County GOP Chairman) – both are aggressive, hard charging, no-nonsense guys who will roll up their sleeves and campaign like nobody’s business.
As I said earlier, the story of this race is only just starting to unfold – and while I will continue to tell the tale, many others will join in the fun. And as if this all wasn’t enough, let’s remember that should Emmerson or Miller be victorious, it will only have a cascading effect to yet another special election for a then-vacant Assembly seat…
Of course all of this goes out the window if Governor Schwarzenegger appoints either Emmerson or Miller to be California’s next Lt. Governor!
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