At some point today, John Garamendi will be sworn in as a new member of the United States House of Representatives. In doing so, he will step down from the office of Lt. Governor. Governor Schwarzenegger will be able to name his replacement, subject to a confirmation vote of both the State Senate and the State Assembly. In theory the Governor could tap Garamendi’s replacement as early as tomorrow afternoon – after all, he has already had over a month to think about it, with Garamendi the overwhelming favorite to win his election to Congress as the Democrat nominee in a House seat with an 18-point advantage for the party of Obama.
There has been a good deal of conjecture taking place already as to whom the Governor might appoint. Let me start off by saying that the names of a number of Democrats have been thrown 
around – the most plausible of which being that of his old friend, former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg (pictured, who is currently trying to change the world as Co-Chairman of California Forward). If you were to be of the mind to think that Schwarzenegger might tap someone outside of his own political party for the position, then Hertzy probably would be a likely pick. This of course would be especially concerning to Senators Dean Florez and Alan Lowenthal, the two Democrats duking it out for their party’s nomination for LG. Some have said Hertzy would only take the position as a caretaker. I don’t buy that – should he get the appointment, I predict he ends up seeking election to a full four year term, with Schwarzenegger crossing party lines to endorse him. Some have suggested that the Governor might tap his Chief of Staff, Democrat Susan Kennedy, who would not seek election. This isn’t likely, but a fun rumor to continue to throw around.
That said, I think that it is more likely that the Governor would appoint someone from his own Republican Party to fill out the remainder of Garamendi’s four-year term. Anyone that the Governor might tap would likely have to publicly commit to being a caretaker who will not seek election to the office – otherwise it is likely that they would not be confirmed by the legislature. This probably eliminates for consideration the two Republicans running for the GOP nomination for Gov Lite – Senators Jeff Denham and Sam Aanestad.
So who might he pick? Let’s start with the presumption that if he is going to pick a Capitol GOP politico, it would be someone who has stood by him during his least popular moments. That puts six legislators on the short list – the six who voted for the February budget deal – Senators Roy Ashburn, Dave Cogdill and Abel Maldonado – and Assemblymen Anthony Adams, Roger Niello or Mike Villines. The two most intriguing of this list are Maldonado and Adams. The former’s appointment would create a vacancy in a very competitive Central Coast Senate seat, possibly allowing for a Dem mid-term pickup (talk about creating chaos, the likely GOPer to run in that special election would be Sam Blakeslee, would likely would have to step down as Assembly Republican Leader to do that). We hear that the Governor is not particularly fond of Maldonado on a personal level, so this decreases the likelihood of him being picked. The selection of Anthony 
Adams is fun to consider because the proponents of the campaign to recall Adam for his tax increase votes have turned in over 60.000 signatures of which only 36,000 or so need to be valid. As LG, Adams (pictured) would step down from his Assembly seat, thus obviating the need for a recall, and providing a way for Adams to “save face” given his daunting task of surviving a political lynching. If Cogdill or Niello are picked, they would both likely continue their campaigns for State Senate (re-election for Cogdill), though perhaps in competition to whomever would win the special elections to fill out their terms. Roy Ashburn and Mike Villines are not likely picks. Ashburn because he is so unexciting of a pick (this Governor loves pop and sizzle), and Villines because he would encounter confirmation issues – while I’m sure he would agree not to seek a full term as LG, he is a candidate for Insurance Commissioner, and the Democrats running for that post would not be excited to see Villines run from an appointed statewide office.
What if the Governor was to tap someone who is not currently in the legislature for this position – whom might be? Let me start by saying that if asked I will not serve. I would be flattered, but the demands of publishing a political website are just too great.
But who might be on tap? The most likely suspects would be former key staff members to the Governor – people with whom he has had a chance to work closely, and who would likely 
seamlessly integrate the Lt. Governor’s position into his own inter-office cabinet. These people include former Deputy Chiefs of Staff Cassandra Pye (pictured left, who is currently with APCO Worldwide) or Dan Dunmoyer (who is with Farmers Insurance), current Cabinet Secretary Fred Aguiar, former Finance Directors Tom Campbell (with the presumption that he would abandon his quest for the GOP nomination for Governor), Donna Arduin (currently a economist in business with Art Laffer), and Mike Genest (who just announced his retirement). Of that group, our favorite to posit is Cassandra Pye, who just signed up to write for our FlashReport Blog. We think it would be cool to host a blogging Lt. Governor! I should also add that several people have suggested to me that the Governor might try to reach out to former Senate Republican Leaders Jim Brulte or Dick Ackerman or former Assembly Republican Leader and current Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh – none of whom would be likely to want the pay cut from their current “strategic consulting” gigs…
With Arnold Schwarzenegger, there is always the possibility that he will reach completely outside of the box for some unexpected pick – one that comes with “shock value” – perhaps Tom Arnold or Dennis Miller? (What a great excuse to dig up this photo of me with Miller from Arnold’s 2003 Inauguration!) Maybe Dee Snyder with Twisted Sister? Maybe he’ll ask his million twitter followers if any of them want to make a 140 character case for why they should be considered.
One thing is certain, Arnold Schwarzenegger will make his selection soon. How soon? Doesn’t he have a scheduled appearance coming soon with Jay Leno?
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