Yesterday FR blogger Jim Lacy put up on this blog page the results of a survey he commissioned in AD 72. FR blogger (and Linda Ackerman’s pollster) Adam Probolsky offered a critique of Lacy here.
Below are some thoughts on the Lacy survey from State Senator John Lewis (Ret’d) who is the lead consultant for the campaign of Supervisor Chris Norby…
LATEST 72nd AD POLL – AWFUL NEWS FOR LINDA ACKERMAN
COULD NORBY WIN IT ALL ON NOVEMBER 17TH?
By John Lewis
In the race for the 72nd AD, as of Monday afternoon 7926 voters have already cast their ballots. When you add in the thousands of ballots in the mail and the ballots waiting to be mailed, between one-quarter and one-third of the votes in this election have already been cast…and that is great news for Chris Norby.
In a poll released yesterday by Orange County Republican activist Jim Lacy, among Republican voters Chris Norby holds a 28-17 lead. However, a close look reveals that Chris Norby’s ballot lead is much larger and perhaps insurmountable.
Among Republican absentee voters Norby’s lead mushrooms to 35-15 over Linda Ackerman. Among projected election day voters the race is a much closer 23-18 Norby lead.
The Lacy poll modeled for a turnout comprised of only 40% absentee voters. I believe and past special election turnouts bear this out, that roughly 75% of the votes cast in this election will be cast by absentee ballot.
So let’s do a little corrective modeling for a 75% absentee turnout. The real Republican numbers released yesterday would have been Norby 32% and Ackerman 16%. This is among decided voters. When you delete at least some of the undecideds as non-voters, the Norby lead expands even further.
In a poll conducted by my firm, Lewis Consulting Group, at the onset of this campaign we projected that ultimately 43% of the votes cast in this election would be cast by absentee Republicans. We also project 57% of all votes casts will be cast by Republicans. Chris Norby is getting a sizable block of votes from political independents and Democrat John McMurray is soaking up most of the Democrat votes.
The Ackerman’s nasty campaign has backfired and at this point it appears the only question in doubt on November 17th is the size of the Norby margin of victory.