Jim Lacy, a slatemaker, released some polling data today that suggests OC Supervisor Chris Norby is winning the race for AD 72 in the November Special Election. And at first glance you might think the results have some relevance. But take another look:
The poll he contracted for only surveys Republican voters
Special Elections in California are not governed by typical Primary Election rules that exclude cross-party voting. Therefore the Lacy poll is way off base and has little relevance in the grand scheme of electing someone to replace Duvall. Leaving out Democratic and Decline to State voters and even third-party members who represent a small portion of the electorate, totally and unforgivingly skews the results to meaninglessness.
Moreover, the poll fails to select any turnout model even just among the Republican voters surveyed. So in a low turnout Special Election where (you pick a number 20%, 30%, 19% 34%) will actually cast a ballot, the Lacy poll chooses to survey everyone who happens to be registered to the GOP regardless of their voting history. If you believe the Lacy poll, 90% of Republican voters will turnout in this election.
The poll points out that Ackerman supporter Royce has more pull with GOP voters than Norby supporter McClintock
The poll demonstrates that Rep. Ed Royce’s support for Linda Ackerman is likely to trump Norby’s support by Rep. Tom McClintock among GOP voters.
Those who say they are not voting – still get a vote
In the most fascinating twist, question six of the poll asks whether voters plan on voting. The humor happens when the eight percent of people who say no, they will not be voting, still get asked the subsequent ballot test question and are allowed to the skew the results further by choosing a candidate they will never actually vote for.
It gives me no pleasure ripping the work of a professional pollsters with CA experience. Fortunately for me one doesn’t exist here. Lacy is a direct mail guy who contracted with a call center in Utah to produce a report for him. I don’t questions that the calls were made, just that the methodology is fatally flawed.
In the interest of full disclosure for those who do not know, I have close ties to the Ackerman Family, have been a big fan of Linda’s for years and am working closely with the campaign both as a pollster and as a volunteer.
October 26th, 2009 at 12:00 am
I don’t get to vote in this election but if I did I would be asking the question, who can I trust to stand up and hold the line on the California budget. I believe it was 2007 when we last trusted an Ackerman to vote on a budget and he sided with Abel Maldonado and sold us out. Why should we trust his wife to be any different?
October 26th, 2009 at 12:00 am
Our polling shows Norby crushing Ackerman with high propensity voters.
October 26th, 2009 at 12:00 am
Democrats have a credible candidate in this race as well, Mr. John
MacMurray, who got 45.2 % of all the votes last November against
Mike Duvall. [79,022 for Mike Duvall, 65,216 for John MacMurray]
* And those are NOT Funny Numbers:
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_general/40_56_state_assembly.pdf
With Democratic voters likely to back their recent nominee again on
Nov. 17th, the contest for the GOP nomination does indeed figure to
be settled among registered Republicans, as Lacy’s poll assumes.
And that is a Good Thing!
October 26th, 2009 at 12:00 am
Adam:
The same methodology that shows Congressman Ed Royce popular, which you like, shows Chris Norby more popular in the district than Linda Ackerman, which you don’t like. You can’t have it both ways, Adam! That is why I asked the Royce question, and reported it here.
It doesn’t take a doctorate degree (like my J.D., for example) to design and execute a simple poll. I have fully reported the results and have not engaged in spin here. My questions were consistent with peer review. The survey was of course limited to the dominant party. Clearly, the poll is not intended to present an exhaustive range of data. Rather, it was intended to determine who was more popular between the two candidates at this stage in the election, and in that regard, the numbers are quite reliable. Norby is in fact more popular in this district than Ackerman, and that translates into votes, and just about anybody can figure that out, regardless of your professional spin here.
Still driving that Maserati? I’m still in my CLS 500.
Your friend,
Jim Lacy