California’s 10th Congressional District is "Ground Zero" right now — with voters in that East Bay District preparing to choose between either Democrat John Garamendi or Republican David Harmer to replace Rep. Ellen Tauscher who vacated the seat to take a position in the Obama Administration.
The question is whether this seat, carved out to be held by a Democrat, is vulnerable to a GOP pickup or not. The Harmer for Congress campaign has just released some new polling data that suggests that this race is going to be a lot more competitive than Lt. Governor Garamendi or the DCCC want it to be.
Let’s preface the new polling data with a look at the generic Republican vs. Democrat numbers from a survey taken August 2/3 (350 person sample). When voters were asked would they vote for a Republican or a Democrat, 29% said Republican, and 52% said Democrat.
Fast forward now to just a few days ago, and a survey conducted by the same firm, Wilson Research, conducting September 24/26 (450 person sample with a +/- of 4.9%) – the generic ballot is 40% Republican, 44% Democrat. This is a huge shift in a relatively short period of time.
Also of interest from the latest survey are the favorable/unfavorable numbers:
Garamendi: 46% favorable, 30% unfavorable.
Harmer: 24% favorable, 9% unfavorable.
Those are really high unfavorables for Garamendi. Among just Democrats, Garamendi’s unfavorables are a pretty high 19% (no doubt a by product of being whalloped in the primary)
Among DEM voters Garamendi is carrying a 20-point negative. But get this — among Decline To State Voters, Garamendi sits at 30% favorable and 32% unfavorable!
In this second WRS survey, the ballot question of Garamendi or Harmer comes out:
Garamendi 41
Harmer 34
This is based on a turnout of 29% Republican, 47% Democrat, and 23% DTS and other. If the Republican turnout mirrors the primary, where it was 35%, then this race significantly tightens up.
I also found it interesting that when voters were asked about their awareness of the candidates, 49% were aware of Harmer, and only 32% of Garamendi — and this on the heels of a high-profile, very expensive Democrat primary.
The take away from this is that this seat is in play when, frankly, it aught not be. But for Democrats you have a toxic cocktail — a President who is pursuing such an extreme agenda that he is turning off blue collar Democrats and DTS voters en masse — and of course Garamendi is not a popular figure, winning far less than a majority of the votes of Democrats voting in the special primary election.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 am
John
Wanna bet?
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 am
I will give 25 to 1 odds for anyone who wants to bet on Harmer, no limit.
October 2nd, 2009 at 12:00 am
I’m all for optimism, but come on. This poll seems like pie in the sky kind of numbers. I’d loved to be proved wrong.
October 4th, 2009 at 12:00 am
I think he has a fairly good chance. I sure hope so, as we need a Republican that’s pro-gun (as opposed to making noises without action).
Garamendi has a problem of being seen as a retread, and of being tied to the crash & burn Obama administraiton that’s gonna give us back 19 – 26 GOP seats in Congress.
He represents a district that has a population of some significant income and achievement, nice homes, and folks who want to see good schools maintained & improved.
He doesn’t carry a bunch of Orange County “Religious Right” baggage, either – meaning he can tout desires for practical low-overhead governance without a bunch of idiotic “pro life” drama.
As the Obama admin tanks, the CA Republican party needs to shut up and let Dave do his work and win his district so that the baggage CA Republican leadership has doesn’t taint good candidates.
Bill Wiese
San Jose CA
October 7th, 2009 at 12:00 am
Dave Harmer is exactly the type of conservative beacon that is dourly needed in the Pelosi House of Representatives , which seems bent on ramming socialism down our throats. Dave will stand as a voice for the country our founders forged, for freedom, for liberty, and for free enterprise.
As shown by the Tea Parties, the country is fed up with the Pelosi-Reid-Obama disaster. Garamendi would just be another cog in the their wheel, and they already have enough cogs! We need to send a representative to spoke their wheel, and Dave is the man!