The Decline to State voter, California’s version of independents, is in the unique position to 
influence partisan Primary Elections. In Primary Elections (other than in Republican Presidential Primaries) Decline to State (DTS) voters have the option of choosing a Republican or Democratic Party ballot.
Earlier this year in January our Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research California poll found that 15% of DTS voters would choose a Republican ballot and 38% would choose a Democratic ballot. January 2009 was probably the low point for the GOP and the height of the Democratic/Obama frenzy. Flash forward to the brink of summer with continued economic woes and enough time for one-party rule to scare some of these unaffiliated voters and the numbers have shifted somewhat, now 19% want to vote in the Republican Primary and 33% in the Democratic Primary.
Conventional wisdom has been that more moderate candidates, especially on the Republican side have a greater chance of attracting DTS voters to weigh-in for them. However this may not be the case.
The largest percentage of DTS voters choosing a Republican ballot are men, those who consider themselves conservatives and those who feel the state is on the wrong track. DTS voters are increasing in numbers, they are disproportionately young and they sometimes have shared values with their neighbors who choose to affiliate with a party. For instance in Southern California (excluding Los Angeles County) where there are more Republican voters than Democratic voters, DTS voters are more likely to vote in a Republican race.
By a margin of fourteen percent Democrats lead Republicans in voter registration statewide. Among DTS voters who would choose a partisan primary ballot that margin is now consistent but the short-term trend is moving toward the GOP. The Republican to Democratic margin favors Republicans even more (20% v. 32%) among Election Day DTS voters who may be more likely to follow-through on picking a partisan ballot.
Latinos, Asians and those who call themselves liberals registered as DTS are more likely to choose a Democratic ballot. Also, it is not surprising that DTS voters from the Bay Area are much more likely to vote in the Democratic Primary.
As candidates position for legislative, Congressional and statewide races in 2010, the smart ones are including DTS voters in their outreach and voter ID efforts. While registered Republicans and Democrats are by no means singular voting blocks, their membership will likely be amenable to a broad based message targeting voters in their respective parties. However, this is not the case with DTS voters. Greater care must be taken when designing voter communications to DTS voters. Successful campaigns will acknowledge the differences and exploit them.
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