The following information and attached document with charts is RNC-collected material, derived from Secretary of State data. Accurate info; not yet widely distributed. In fact, it’s likely you may be seeing it here first.
Putting Voter Registration Data in Perspective:
Recent Trend Benefits Democrats, But Not to the Degree Some Alarmists Claim
The recent increase in Democrat voter registration in California reflects a national trend which has seen significant increases in the 29 states with partisan registration. California’s voter registration data reveals the Republican Party is today in a similar position to 1982 and 1994 when George Deukmejian and Pete Wilson were elected Governor.
NATIONAL TREND
Harris Interactive reports Republican self-identification nationally at its lowest point in 25 years as 36% of Americans identify with the Democratic Party, 31% identify as Independents, and 26% as Republicans. Independents outnumber Republicans for the first time since 1983.
This trend in self-identification contributes to the recent increase in Democrat registration. In 2008, 7.8 million Americans registered to vote in states with party registration. Of those, 5.0 million were Democrats, 1.1 million joined the Republican Party and 1.4 million registered as independents or joined minor parties.
WESTERN AND CALIFORNIA TREND
The national trend in registration is reflected throughout the Western Region. California’s drop in Republican registration of 3.4% is similar to Nevada’s 3.6% decline, and pales in comparison to Colorado’s 9.0% decline. Republican losses were lowest in Utah with a 0.3% decline.
Every state in the West saw a decline in Republican registration in 2008.
Colorado -9.00%
Oregon -7.10%
Nevada -3.60%
California -3.40%
Wyoming -2.20%
New Mexico -1.80%
Arizona -1.70%
Utah -0.30%
Today, California Democrats constitute 44.5% of the electorate, with Republicans at 31.1%, DTS at 20% and minor parties at 4.3%. The Democrat advantage over Republicans in registration stands at 13%.
In historical terms, the present Democrat registration advantage is similar to that which existed when Republicans won the Governor’s office in the 1986 and 1994 elections. Democrats enjoyed an 18% advantage when George Deukmejian (R) won in 1982, and a smaller 11% advantage when Gray Davis (D) won in 1998.
NATIONAL REGISTRATION TREND MAY NOT TRANSLATE INTO AUTOMATIC ADVANTAGE FOR DEMOCRAT CANDIDATES
While the Democrats enjoy greater numbers in terms of voter registration and party identification, recent trends in the generic Congressional ballot suggest these advantages may not directly benefit candidates. While Democrats have enjoyed large advantages in the generic Congressional ballot throughout 2008 and the first months of 2009, that advantage has disappeared as Republicans have pulled even with Democrats in the generic ballot test at 38% each, according to Rasmussen Reports.
See the attachment to view the charts.