Over the years, I have had my share of hands-on campaign experience.  Besides my term as Executive Director of the California Republican Party, I was intimately involved in key positions in campaigns for a statewide candidate and a ballot measure (one won, one lost), as well as numerous campaigns for Congress and the State Legislature.  This is relevant because I want make it clear that when I write about political strategy and tactics, it is not from the perspective of a conservative columnist, but rather from the perspective of having over two decades of hands-on involvement in the “contact game” of politics.

Yesterday State Senator Jeff Denham (pictured to the right) announced that in the pursuit of the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor that he has successfully reserved (or “locked up” as we say in the biz) 14 of the major GOP slate mailers that go out before the election.   Having had an opportunity to review the list of slates, I can tell you that Denham has pretty much cornered the market on all of the biggies, including the Official Non-Partisan Voter Guide (yeah, I know, a funny name for a slate that impacts how GOPers vote), the Save Prop. 13 Howard Jarvis slate (along with the other related “family” of slates administered by Landslide Communications), and many more.

"How important are slates," you ask?

I think in 2010, especially on the Republican side, having a strong presence on slates in the primary for statewide candidates will be important.  The big-dollar slugfest between Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman for the gubernatorial nomination is going to really take all of the attention, and I think that it will be a tremendous challenge for down ticket GOPers to make an impression on primary voters – it will take a lot of money.  Because of this, it becomes a significant advantage to have your name, as a candidate, come into folks mailboxes from so many different groups and organizations with whom GOP voters identify.

My favorite example of how impactful slates can be are two races for Board of Equalization in Southern California.  Former BOE Member Claude Parrish, who I think it is fair to characterize as having an awkward public presence, was elected and re-elected largely on the strength of his dominance of slates for this low profile office, with a district that contains one quarter of the state’s population.  After Parrish termed out, Michelle Steel ran in a very competitive primary with State Senator Ray Haynes, the latter presumably having much more name ID for his lengthy time in public office.  I believe that Steel’s dominance of the slates played a key role in her primary victory.

Obviously it is way too early to fully handicap the Republican primary for Lt. Governor – clearly Denham has a strategy of trying to “clear the field” and the success of that strategy won’t ultimately be known until the close of filing – still a long time from now.   But if you take his securing of key slate mailers, and combine the fact that he is approaching the “$2 million raised” mark, and that he has been endorsed by over 90% of GOP legislators (it stands to reason that if you have endorsed Denham, you aren’t running against him), and his strategy may yet pay off.

Of course, getting through the primary, for a Republican in California, may be the easier part of the equation than a general election victory.  But as they say, you can’t win the game if you aren’t on the field.  And right now, Denham is a strong favorite to suit up as the GOP nominee for Lt. Governor for next year’s general election.

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This entry was posted on Thursday, March 19th, 2009 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.