I understand that Dave Cogdill thinks he has gotten "the best budget deal" he could. Since I have recently be criticized by Debra Saunders for "being against compromise," I thought I would recite what bad "compromise" has gotten us.
You see, I haven’t always been against compromise in the state budget. I even voted for Governor Schwarzenegger’s first budget because I thought it was a good one. On many occasions, I believed that Republicans actually got something in the budget, so while I may have voted against the budget, I didn’t criticize those who voted for the compromise. In other cases, we were told "this was the best budget we will get" and therefore Republicans had to vote for it. Whenever you hear those words, you know there is a lot left on the table, and that the Republican leader has capitulated, as happened here.
Let’s take a look at the past
1998-99 – Republicans get the car tax cut. I supported the compromise because the deal actually advanced a Republican cause, that is, the cause of tax cuts. The tax cut was not perfect, it was to be implemented through a series of revenue triggers, but it was a decent compromise, and I committed to protect the car tax cut in the next budgets
1999-2000 – Republicans compromise on one of the largest increases in spending in the state’s history. Why the compromise? Pork. Republican increased spending by $11 billion for a $15 million pool in their district. It was the crassest of all compromises.
2000 – 01 – An actual $9 billion increase in spending, but Republicans got something for it. Governor Davis supported pulling the final trigger early for the car tax. I was convinced, given the dot com bust that was occurring right at that time, I believed we were not going to hit the last trigger, and that we were going to lose the car tax cut, so I supported the budget (although I voted against it) by urging others to vote for it. It turned out that this one compromise led to the event that most helped the recall of Gray Davis, when he unilaterally tried to increase the car tax.
2001-02 – The first year of the Davis budget crisis. Neither the Governor nor the Democrats proposed any real spending reductions, spent the existing surplus, and faked the revenue projections to say they passed a state budget. Republicans were told this "was the best it was going to get" and it was the beginning the of the cataclysm that was the end of Davis’ political career.
2002-03 – The budget crisis is now evident, and the Governor and the Democrats still refuse to reduce spending. Once again, we are told that we have to compromise, and that the budget was "the best we were going to get." It wasn’t, and Republicans were convinced to vote for a tax increase in order to "get a budget." It was once again a disaster, but hey, Senator Johanesson got a job out of it.
2003-04 – Davis’ last budget. We were told we could only get a balanced budget with a tax increase. Three state budgets and the Dems refused to cut spending in any of them, and Republicans were told they were "getting the best budget they could" and now Republicans were being jammed into a tax increase. I actually thought it was going to happen, so in this case, I actually proposed borrowing the money through short-term "revenue anticipation warrants" to get through the short term problems. I was told by "budget experts" we couldn’t do it, and only a tax would work. The plan worked, it got us through the problem without a tax increase, while holding spending down, and resulting in the recall of Gray Davis. Those three events coincided to prevent the "certain" tax increase of 2003-04.
2004-05 – New Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget that for the first time proposed cutting spending by $100 million. I supported the final budget, which was a $100 million general fund spending increase, the smallest increase in the history of the state.
2005-06 – The final budget was a $13 billion spending increase, the largest actual increase (and and the second largest percentage increase) in the history of the state, passed as the Governor supported a special election in the fall. I believed the best strategy was to get out of the budget time without a large controversy, but believed that the best strategy for Republicans to put up the minimum number of votes, to increase their negotiating strength the next year. The problem-a number of Republican leaders had political ambitions and didn’t want to be "the deciding vote" for the largest increase in spending in the state’s history, so they persuaded other Republicans to vote for the budget by lying about the size of the increase (trying to claim it was $9 billion instead of $9 billion instead of $13 billion). We had to do this, we were told, to save the Governor’s special election. It turned out to be a huge mistake.
2006-07 through 2007-08 – Once again, we were told these budgets had to pass to "save the Governor" and once again, these budgets sowed the seeds of the current destruction. Holding the line on spending would have stopped the current debacle, but a "deal" was more important than acting responsibly. Senate Republican tried to hold out for actual cuts, but the Governor publically ridiculed them, as the seeds of the current debacle took shape
2008-09 – the current problems are now completely evident, and the Dems still refuse to cut. Republicans ultimately vote for a patch work budget that was "the best they could get" but they got little concessions in return
2009-10 – the Governor proposes laying off 20,000 state employees. Just as Republicans are starting to accomplish the things that are really necessary, the leadership capitulates, saying it is the "best deal they could get"
It is not. Cuts, not tax increases, will accomplish what Republicans believe will actually solve the problems of the state. Nobody wants to take the heat for those cuts, however, and so they capitulate. It is not easy, but it is what is supposed to be done. Remember, every time Republicans have capitulated for "the best deal they could get" it has led to disaster. The Dems will do the right thing when they are convinced they can’t get what they want. That means Republicans have to hold out. A good deal is close, but it will take some spine. Let’s see if this current crop of Republicans has that spine, even if their leadership doesn’t.