I had a most interesting conversation yesterday.
I was in Sacramento, and I was asked whether I thought a tax increase was in the cards for Republicans to get a budget deal. I said no. The key problem, I said, was that the Governor and the Democrats were asking Republicans to betray a key principle of a key constituency and get nothing in return. The result to any Republican who voted for that tax increase would be the end of their political career. I know, because, I said, I would do everything in my power to make sure of it for anyone who voted for that tax increase, and I know there are a lot of Republicans who think like me.
The fellow who asked me this, a key lobbyist for the education interests in Sacramento got it. He said it would be like asking a Democrat to vote to eliminate collective bargaining. What do you think the unions would do to a Democrat who did that?
He also told me the story about a conversation with a union leader. When asked about eliminating the rule against contracting out enacted when Gray Davis was Governor, the union thug said No Way!!!! In my entire career, this union leader said, I have only had one Democrat Governor, and if they give the rule against contracting out now, they may never get it back.
Well tough cookies. No one has ever repealed a tax increase either. If Republicans give up on taxes, those taxes are permanent. More important, if Democrat interest groups are not willing to give up anything to get a balanced budget, why should Republicans do anything to jeopardize their political careers? Democrats are asking Republican officeholders to give up their political futures for nothing.
And that is the problem with these negotiations. The Governor is asking Republicans to sell out their political futures, and he is giving nothing in return. Democrats are asking Republicans to end their political lives, but are not willing to end their own. Democrat constituency groups are asking Republican constituency groups to sell out their core principles, but are not willing to sell out any of their own.
Getting a political majority does entitle groups and people to certain policy gains. That is what getting power is all about. Winners get to enact their policy initiatives. They don’t get to whine however when the minority has the opportunity to advance their policy initiatives, and the majority has to give up something to get what they want.
My advice to the Republicans in the Legislature. If you feel inclined to vote for a tax, you will end your political career, whether you are the leader or just a rank and file guy. You had better get a lot for it. A long term job (not just an appointment by this Governor), major (MAJOR) policy concessions that buy you a big benefit with a key constituency group, something.
Democrats and their constituency groups have already made it clear that they are giving up nothing for ending your political career. You had better get a lot personally for it, because once it is done, and you are out of office, they will forget you ever existed. Just ask Mike Briggs, Brian Setencich, Anthony Pescetti, Dave Kelley, Paul Horcher, and Dick Dickerson. They gave the Democrats what they wanted, and they are now enjoying their time in the private sector. You will too.