If your name has been submitted by the Romney for President Campaign or the McCain for President Campaign as a prospective delegate for this summer’s Republican National Convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul, you may have a long night and early morning ahead. Over the past few days, we have seen several public opinion polls attempting to gauge who will win the GOP primary here in the Golden State. Some of these surveys show Senator Mccain ahead, others show Governor Romney ahead. Others show that it is neck and neck. The reality is probably somewhere in this range – it will be a tight race. For those who are frustrated about the disparagy of some of the polling results, I would take heed in something my friend and fellow blogger Adam Probolsky (a public opinion pollster by profession) likes to say, "The results of a survey of voters is only as accurate as your ability to try and predict who is likely to actually vote." There are predictions for a record turn out by California voters today. This isn’t surprising since on both sides of the political spectrum, Golden State voters will be actually making a… Read More

I went over to the Drudge Report website to see the latest, and was treated to a huge headline: SHOCK POLL: OBAMA TAKES 13-POINT LEAD IN CALIFORNIA, ROMNEY UP 7

The headline links to a Reuters story, Obama, Romney lead in California on Super Tuesday that is all about the results of a late breaking Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey. The phone interviews for the survey were taken Sunday and yesterday.

Remember to vote!… Read More

If your name has been submitted by the Romney for President Campaign or the McCain for President Campaign as a prospective delegate for this summer’s Republican National Convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul, you may have a long night and early morning ahead. Over the past few days, we have seen several public opinion polls attempting to gauge who will win the GOP primary here in the Golden State. Some of these surveys show Senator Mccain ahead, others show Governor Romney ahead. Others show that it is neck and neck. The reality is probably somewhere in this range – it will be a tight race. For those who are frustrated about the disparagy of some of the polling results, I would take heed in something my friend and fellow blogger Adam Probolsky (a public opinion pollster by profession) likes to say, "The results of a survey of voters is only as accurate as your ability to try and predict who is likely to actually vote." There are predictions for a record turn out by California voters today. This isn’t surprising since on both sides of the political spectrum, Golden State voters will be actually making a… Read More

One piece of mail (and several autodials some of which were very, very difficult to understand) hit the Dichiara mailbox today.Paid for by the Republican Party, its sort of a slate. Both Valerie and I liked it… it hits all the things that get our attention: McClintock, Poizner, Wilson statements and a whack at "Proposition 93 a Democrat Sponsored Sham". Well done art.. I think it is a JohnsonClark piece. B+, and good timing on delivery.… Read More

We’ll have plenty of time, after the fact, to write a pithy column on the Republican weenies who endorsed Proposition 93. We’ll also be able to talk about the patriots who helped to finance the campaign taking on the mighty Speaker of the Assembly.

But I wanted to get one "shout out" on the record before election day. The New Majority and its members made a significant (six figure) donation to the No on 93 campaign, and given their historical love-bond with Arnold Schwarzenegger, it was extremely notable that they stood their ground when the Governor flip-flopped on his support for our state’s existing legislative term-limits.

So to the New Majority folks, we say THANK YOU!… Read More

If you checked out the Romney ad a few posts below. This ad just went up from the McCain campaign in response. You know the addage — the best defense is a good offense… … Read More

The dynamics of the race for the 71st Assembly District have changed dramatically in the last few weeks. The 71st takes in a large parts of Orange County and parts of Riverside County.

Until just a few weeks ago there were four candidates (three of whom were from OC). Now there are just two, Neil Blais a Rancho Santa Margarita councilman and Fire Authority Board Member from Orange County (a Probolsky Research client) and Corona councilman and Transportation Commissioner Jeff Miller from Riverside County. Both candidates are members of their respective county Republican Central Committees.

There has been a fair amount of back and forth regarding the two campaigns finances, so I thought I would set the record straight with some factual analysis of the race.

FACT: Neil Blais raised $124,714 in individual contributions during the latest period. That is without any loans – personal or otherwise. Jeff Miller raised $90,019

FACT: Neil Blais also loaned his campaign an additional $100,000 – like most winning GOP Assembly candidates have done in the past.

FACT: Jeff… Read More

This election seasonm may be most remembered for the great ads. Check out this one, released today by the Romney campaign, comparing John McCain to Hillary Clinton… It’s funny, at least until you really think about it… … Read More