I just got off of the phone with Tony Strickland. Needless to say, he is a bit anxious, as this race has ended up being not only the most expensive legislative contest this election cycle, but now it is the closest.
What’s the status of things? Well, FR readers probably know that this sprawling district is mostly in Ventura County, with a big portion of it also being in Santa Barbara County, and a sliver of it is in Los Angeles County.
Generally, Strickland performed better in Ventura County, and Jackson did better (by a slightly larger margin) in Santa Barbara County. In the tiny LA portion, which is up in the very conservative Santa Clarita area, Strickland performed much better.
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November 8th, 2008 at 12:00 am
I agree that the odds appear to favor Tony at this point, but not by enough to allow anyone to sleep at nights. I know from personal experience in several different races here in Ventura County that the late absentee ballots do not necessarily follow the pattern of either the pre-election-day absentees nor election-day voting. Furthermore, the different batches of late absentees (and Ventura County will have at least two and perhaps three or four batches) do not necessarily mirror each other. Finally, the provisional ballots could be different from all of the others.
I think it’s safe to say that Tony will win each of those groups, but the varying margins will be critical in determining whether he can overcome HBJ’s edge in Santa Barbara.
November 24th, 2008 at 12:00 am
UPDATE as of 11/24/2008
All 3 Counties in Senate district 19 did updates today, and the result
was a net GAIN for Tony Strickland of 62 votes… (2,083 to 2,021).
Mr. Strickland now leads district-wide by 1,390 votes (203,664 to
202,274).
We are at the last stage of the count now, tabulating the dreaded
“Provisional Ballots”, which the Hannah Beth Jackson camp is
counting on to win a last-minute victory.
Today’s results are a blow to that hope. Strickland needs only to
keep holding his own in the Provisionals.
Harkening back to his basketball career, Tony leads by 5 points
with 30 seconds to play, and can afford to trade baskets.