On this election day, much will be decided across this country. The next President and Vice President will be elected. Republicans will certainly lose seats in the United States Senate, but will we be able to retain enough seats to filibuster against egregious, left-wing legislation? Pundits estimate House GOP loses in the neighborhood of 20-30 seats (some say that Tom McClintock’s bid for Congress is in peril, and that once-thought-safe incumbent Members of Congress like Dan Lungren are no longer assured reelection).
As the State Legislative level, it is unclear whether the sizable lead of Barack Obama in California will sweep Democrats into an even greater lock-hold on the Senate and Assembly, or whether, like in 2006, the Democrat wave will crash at the border (no state legislative seats changed parties that year).
In the State Senate, only one seat – the 19th District – is really in play at this point, where former GOP Assemblyman Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah Beth Jackson are in the midst of the state’s priciest battle. Over on the Assembly side, the battle is taking place in a lot more seats than Republicans would like. AD 15, 78, and 80 (the districts of retiring legislators Guy Houston, Shirley Horton, and Bonnie Garcia, respectively) were supposed to be the only real GOP “defend” targets. But due to the bad year, a few others seats have ended up on the radar, two in the Central Valley — AD 10 and AD 26, where Alan Nakanishi and Greg Aghazarian are retiring – the latter running a quixotic campaign for State Senate, and also AD 37 in Ventura County where GOP incumbent Audra Strickland has seen the negative impacts of being up for election at the same time that millions of dollars are being spent to try and defeat her husband’s Senate candidacy. There is one opportunity for a GOP pickup in the Central Valley’s AD 30 where Democrat Nicole Parra is retiring.
Every political analyst to whom I have spoken thinks that, with this year being bad for Republicans, that GOPers will lose seats, but it isn’t clear how many.
This commentary today isn’t really intended to be a wrap up of those races – though it is odd that after today, the 2008 elections will be officially over, after a long political season (made much more so by the drama of the Presidential election, and the backdrop of a dozen state ballot measures). This commentary is to talk a bit about the two gentlemen who have been quarterbacking for some time now the GOP’s state legislative political efforts – Senate Republican Leader Dave Cogdill and Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines.
Generally, we try to follow a rule here at the FlashReport to pretty much stay out of issues of legislative caucus leadership – leaving the organizational matters of each house to those elected to serve in them. But I thought it was important to make the case today, before the balloting is finished and results are in later tonight, as to why it is critical that both Cogdill and Villines be re-elected to head their respective caucuses.
First of all, the typical yard stick by which GOP leaders is measured is how they fare in these general elections. Leaders that retain and perhaps pick up seats tend to be rewarded with an extended time in the big chair. However, when a leader loses seats, they are often times deposed by challenger if they even stand for re-election.
I am going to make the case for why Dave Cogdill (pictured above) should be re-elected as Senate Republican Leader whether Tony Strickland is elected to the Senate or not – and why Mike Villines should be re-elected as Assembly Republican Leader whether the GOP picks up one seat, or loses six.
Senator Cogdill, as most FR readers know, was elected leader earlier this Spring after Proposition 93 was defeated by the voters (thanks in large measure to the leadership of Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner), and Cogdill’s predecessor, Dick Ackerman, was definitely retiring due to term-limits. Cogdill is still the “new kid on the block” – inheriting Strickland’s race mid-stream. Still, he has raised massive funds and has helped build the kind of confidence in Strickland that has allowed the business community to wage one of the largest independent expenditure efforts in history on Strickland’s behalf. It is my belief that if Strickland were to lose, it would be directly attributable to a “Barack wave” coming through California – creating an atmosphere where any GOP leader would have a tough go of bringing home their candidate.
Assemblyman Villines has had the benefit of occupying his office for a longer period of time, and, well, he put it to good use. I believe he did a great job of recruiting candidates, and he actually will have raised and spent more in this election cycle, on behalf his candidates, than any other Assembly Republican Leader in history. And, I should also add that because of the bad year nationally for the GOP, several more seats are “in play” than was anticipated and Villines has risen to the occasion, raising substantial funds to defend those seats.
Using the logic above, I could justify both of these leaders returning to their posts. But the most compelling reason to return them is the strong leadership that both have demonstrated in successfully unifying their caucuses and fighting successfully against tax increases – increases advocated not only by Capitol Democrats, but by our Republican Governor as well. I cannot overstate the significance of Statehouse Republicans standing together behind the core principles of our party — something we have not seen out of Beltway Republicans.
I
n the case of Assembly Republican Leader Villines (pictured with yours truly), whom I will single out as he has been in his position substantially longer than his colleague, I believe it is fair to say that he had actually changes the criteria by which an Assembly Republican Leader should be judged. Because of Villines’ leadership, the legislative role of the Leader is now a huge factor, along with electoral accomplishments. Frankly, in all of the years that I have been involved in politics, I have never met a Republican Leader so able to unify his caucus. In the past, it was typically the case that an Assembly GOP Leader would be routinely undercut by rogue caucus members, either forcing the leader to compromise, or in some cases those rogue members just voting with Democrats and cutting the bulk of Assembly Republicans out of the loop.
As we know, as the final curtain falls on this year’s election, legislators will go Sacramento to a special legislative session on the budget (which is apparently already out of whack to the tune of between $10 – $15 billion), and next year’s budget crisis is already larger than this year’s. In this environment, I believe it is critical that Senate and Assembly Republicans retain Cogdill and Villines as their leaders. At the end of the day, this is a decision that Republican state legislators will have to make – but if I were up there, my decision would already be made. Irrespective of how these legislative campaigns turn out today. These two have demonstrated their ability to lead under the Dome – a critical factor given state government’s fiscal chaos due to overspending.
In the coming days, you will hear me opine about our United States Senate and Congressional Republican Leadership. There we have a case where leadership has will not have only likely lost seats, but they will have absolutely failed to unite their caucus members to oppose growth in government. But let me not get ahead of myself…
If you are reading this column, and you have not yet voted – well, get out there and cast your ballot! This is an important election, one you should not miss. If you end today being a member or member-elect of the Senate or Assembly Republican Caucuses, I hope you will take this column to heart.
Care to read comments, or make your own about today’s Daily Commentary?
Just click here to go to the FR Weblog, where this Commentary has its own blog post, and where you can read and make comments.