One wouldn’t necessarily think the anticipated/supposed "Obama surge" of 18-30 year-olds would benefit a parental notification measure. But, here’s the explanatory press release from the Yes on 4 folks. Planned Parenthood’s gotta be going nuts, if their poll data is showing the same. Will we see a PP "Obama’s got a lock on California, so you can go ahead and stay home" effort in the next week?
Obama Voters Give Proposition 4 Critical Lead into Election Day
Polls Find Wide Approval from Democrats, Latinos, African-Americans Key to Victory
Los Angeles, CA – With just seven days before Election Day, a new analysis reveals that Proposition 4, the statewide ballot measure that requires parental notification prior to a minor’s abortion, has consistently led in opinion polls due to the rise of "Obama voters." With a higher voter turnout among key groups expected on November 4th, Proposition 4 stands to gain new ground among undecided voters.
Averaging the five most recent polls from the Public Policy Institute of California, Survey , and the Field Research Corporation finds that parental notification has broad appeal to Democrats (36 percent), Latinos (50 percent), and African Americans (46 percent), who are overwhelmingly in favor of Senator Barack Obama for President. As these groups have increased their voter registration numbers and traditionally turned out in higher numbers to expand the electorate base in presidential election years, they tip the balance in favor of passing Proposition 4 next Tuesday. Indeed, all polls have indicated that overall, Proposition 4 has consistently led among decided voters.
"Proposition 4’s unique appeal to Obama voters has kept us ahead in the polls, and in the early voting tally," stated Charles Gallagher, campaign manager for the Yes on 4 Campaign. Gallagher pointed to the October 17th Survey USA poll which found that among the 19 percent of California voters who have already cast their ballot, 52 percent voted yes on Proposition 4.
Gallagher continued, "I’m confident that our message of protecting the health and safety of young teenage girls will continue to resonate strongly with Democrats and undecided voters when they enter the polling booth on Election Day."
Statistically, more California Democrats support Proposition 4 today than in prior ballot years. The 2006 Field Poll opinion data from the Field Research Corporation indicates that Democrats approved a similar parental notification ballot measure by 33 percent in the lead up to Election Day; today, that support has increased to 39 percent, according to the most recently released poll.
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October 28th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Yes, just like what I mentioned about Wisconsin, we will probably lose a good number of legislative seats. But 4 and 8 will most likely win.
Yes, voters are not purebreds, there are Democrats who will vote for 4 and 8, just like how I will vote against 4 and 8 as a Republican.