Opponents of a measure that would cement a definition of marriage as between a man and a woman in the California constitution were cheered by a new Field Poll last week showing the measure losing 55% to 38%. Just a few weeks ago, the measure was trailing by only nine points.
But the battle over Proposition 8, which seeks to reestablish a traditional definition of marriage that was overturned by the state’s Supreme Court this summer, isn’t over.
A new study of polling in 26 states — including California — that have voted on the issue of gay marriage shows that support for such measures is often under-reported in polls. For example, in 2000 when California first voted on gay marriage, polls showed that Proposition 22 — which would have banned gay marriage — had 53% support in the final pre-election poll. It wound up winning with 61%.
"I can’t say for sure why polls almost always understate support for traditional marriage," says Frank Schubert, a strategist for anti-gay marriage forces. "I believe it is because the media portrays same-sex marriage as being politically correct. Supporters of traditional marriage don’t want pollsters to consider them intolerant, so they mask their true feelings on the issue."
In states that have voted on gay marriage, the study found that polls underestimated support for traditional marriage by an average of seven points. In only two states (Texas and South Carolina) did pre-election polls accurately predict the outcome of the vote. In only one state (Arizona), polls overstated the final percentage of voters who backed traditional marriage.
While that history may be of some solace to opponents of gay marriage, their trailing in California is at the outer edges of the survey errors. Buoyed by a favorable rewording of the ballot summary for November’s Proposition 8 by California’s Attorney General Jerry Brown, supporters of gay marriage may be on their way to an historic reversal of their state’s 2000 vote.
–John Fund
September 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 am
17 points is a rather large margin. Frankly, it looks like Prop. 8 WILL fail.
The reason? People might not have voted to implement gay marriage, but so far the Prop. 8 supporters haven’t given a reason for people to take away what gay couples can now enjoy.
Seriously, can anyone here give a reason why the current status quo of allowed gay marriages is so bad that it must be eliminated?