[Publisher’s Note – This particular opinion piece rambles on a bit. Somewhere in this is a point to be made. Discerning readers will have to figure it out… Flash]
There is definitely no road map for a conservative legislator when dealing with the state budget debacle, which is why if you look at the vote’s on the state budget in the Senate and Assembly, Republicans are split – many reliably conservative legislators voted for the bill, while still many others voted against it.
Welcome to the intersection of policy and politics. I mean, let’s be clear. The budget that sits on Governor Schwarzenegger’s desk, that he has vowed to veto on Friday (presumably Friday to maximize inconvenience to legislators who would have to come up on the weekend for a potential over-ride vote, with one Assemblyman, Lloyd Levine, having to choose between a budget vote in Sacramento, and his own wedding in Seattle), is riddled with reasons for a conservative to vote no. Frankly, it doesn’t contain nearly enough cuts in spending to offset 40% growth in state spending over the last four budgets. It contains some extremely dumb fiscal policies (such as gouging taxpayers by making them pay more of their taxes earlier in the fiscal year, slamming businesses with a reduction in their ability to deduct losses, and if you’re looking to buy a yacht, you actually get a tax hike – and of course the whole notion of expanding the lottery and borrowing money against it is absurd). Add to it that there is, in fact, no real long-term reform of the budget process. In fact, this budget guarantees that we’ll all be back in short-order to a similar budget crisis next year. In short, a conservative looking at this thing could very easily put up a vote of NO, and easily justify it to themselves, and to their constituents.
That having been said, there is a strong case being made for the idea that this budget is as good as it is going to get for California taxpayers. The reality facing conservatives in the legislature is that you have a legislative majority of liberal Democrats, for most of whom using government to redistribute wealth is like a religion, and they fight any cuts in state spending with the passion of zealots. And there is no state budget without votes from most of these extremists! But then add to the equation the Governor, who after being re-elected on an extremely aggressive campaign literally centered around a major commitment not to raise taxes, has been a strong advocate for a multi-billion dollar sales tax increase, and it’s no wonder that budget options that preceded the current budget on the Governor’s desk were much worse than this one. This budget does largely reflect the number one stated priority of legislative Republicans, which is to hold the line against growing state government to balance the books. Also, the budget reflects the work of the elected leaders of conservatives – Senator Dave Cogdill and Assemblyman Mike Villines. It is compelling when they make the case for this being “as good as it gets” for Republicans.
So… Some conservatives vote no, some vote yes. But with the Governor announcing his veto, what is the political calculus for a conservative legislator on an over-ride vote? Conventional wisdom, of course, is that legislators of the Governor’s own political party should uphold a veto on partisan grounds alone. Heck, it’s “our Governor” and we should stand by him, right? WRONG. If the sole grounds used in determining whether to vote to override Schwarzenegger on, frankly, any veto, were party unity – well, that’s out the window. Arnold Schwarzenegger doesn’t believe in party loyalty, and doesn’t deserve any. He famously brands himself as being “post-partisan” and consistently refers to Republicans in the third person when referring to Capitol politics (there are the Democrats, the Republicans and Arnold). Where previous Republican Governor’s would consistently veto legislation that comes to their desk with scant or no GOP votes, this Governor signs them. The best example is AB 32 (California’s one-state jihad against worldwide carbon emissions) where only one Republican voted for it. The Governor not only signed it, but has embraced it with more passion than Al Gore. So if the only consideration here is whether to override a “Republican” Governor’s veto is his political party, then I say override every time.
On the policy level, you have to ask yourself – if we allow the override of this budget deal to stand, what is the next budget deal going to look like? I have not heard the Governor say publicly to his Republican colleagues, “If you uphold my veto, I promise to take tax increases off the table.” So a veto means that once again, legislative Republicans end up in a battle with Democrats AND the Governor, both of whom want to raise taxes by billions of dollars. So the question is this — is there any scenario by which the zealous Democrats are going to actually support the meaningful budget reform (you know, with a real spending limit) that California needs in a ‘no new taxes’ budget? Never in a million years. Which means meaningful budget reform is going to have to be placed on the ballot via initiative anyways.
Oh, and I guess I should make a mention about the hundreds of bills on the Governor’s desk. There should not be one Republican legislator who isn’t salivating over the idea that Schwarzenegger, who left to his own devices, who probably sign virtually all of these bills, might veto the whole enchilada if his veto is overridden (by his own words). That would be a huge win. Any solid conservative in the legislature has had every truly meaningful piece of legislation killed, or stripped down to a resolution or a study of some sort. While substantive, terrible bills sponsored by Democrats are waiting for action by the Governor.
In conclusion, we can make the case that principled conservatives could have voted no on this budget on pure policy grounds, or yes when you factor in the politics of the situation. But when it comes to a veto override, frankly, it’s probably an easier for a conservative to justify a vote to override than it was their vote than the vote cast on the original budget vote. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some conservatives who voted against the budget vote FOR the override. There aren’t many opportunities like this to send this direct of a public message to a Governor who has abandoned, both in policy and in politics, his own party. That said, a conservative could, on the underlying policy problems with the budget, safely vote no.
What will conservatives do? Stay tuned…
Care to read comments, or make your own about today’s Daily Commentary?
Just click here to go to the FR Weblog, where this Commentary has its own blog post, and where you can read and make comments.