California’s 10th Assembly District was one of the top three Republican ‘defense’ seats during the 2002 legislative elections. But, after handily carrying the district, incumbent Alan Nakanishi has had little problem holding the seat in subsequent elections.
That is all likely to change this year. The Democrats have moved the 10th Assembly District near the top of their wish-list, and for good reason. First, the seat is open, which always makes for a more interesting contest. Second, a once six-point Republican partisan voter registration 
advantage has shrunk to just two points.
The 10th District is located in the San Joaquin Valley, split over four counties — El Dorado, Amador, Sacramento and San Joaquin.
Compounding matters for Republican strategists, not only was there a pretty brutal GOP primary contest back in June, but this seat overlaps several U.S. House seats that will likely see action — CD 3 where Dan Lungren is seeking re-election, CD 4 where Tom McClintock is running, and, of course, CD 11 where Dean Andal is trying to take out freshman Democrat Jerry McNerney (this is a top tier seat).
Democrats will already have a comprehensive ‘get out the vote’ effort along with millions in 
television advertising attacking Republicans. And while Republicans certainly have an effort of their own, all of this means that Republican nominee Jack Sieglock (pictured left) cannot take anything for granted. (I don’t think we’ll see him down in Orange County in two weeks for the State GOP convention). Sieglock is a strong candidate, having served eight years on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors and ten years on the Lodi City Council, including two stints as Mayor. He is friendly and engaging, and "gets it" in terms of the issues facing California.
But Sieglock came through an expensive and bruising primary, and he’s still working to simply pay off the debt from that campaign. He’s also been the recipient of an early negative campaign by the California Faculty Association, which has been on television, radio and the Internet over the past month attacking him.
His opponent is a very strong figure – Business Attorney Alyson Huber (pictured to the right), who describes herself as a social moderate and a fiscal conservative. But, unlike Sieglock, Huber does support tax increases to balance this year’s budget, and she’s in favor of gay marriage, which won’t go over well in the conservative parts of this district.
Still, she looks formidable, and she’ll have the backing of the Democrat Assembly Caucus, which is expected to spend upwards of $1 million on her behalf. By contrast, Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines has his hands full with AD 15, AD 78 and AD 80, and heavily funding Sieglock in addition to those races would be tough.
I called Seiglock’s consultant Tim Clark, who told me, “Democrats have eyed this seat for years, and it’s on their road map to gaining a two-thirds vote in the Assembly.” He went on to say that, “Jack is a very good candidate, but he’s had a tougher road through the primary than his opponent, and that puts us behind.”
This will be one to watch as we get closer to election day.
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