The Field Poll is at it again.
We have talked on this site before about how the way that the Field Poll determines the folks that they survey is skewed to produce a more left-of-center response than other surveys…
Today, Field released numbers showing that Proposition 8 – the initiative to protect marriage – is gaining among likely voters. The Poll also shows that advocates of same-sex marriage are losing ground, down from 54% according to the Field Poll on May 28.
But while the Field Poll shows gains for Proposition 8, it continues to understate the support to uphold the definition of marriage.
“The Field Poll is an outlier among all of the publicly published polling on this initiative,” said Frank Schubert, Campaign Manager for Proposition 8. “The figures appear to be understated by a minimum of 10 percent.”
This isn’t the first time the Field Poll has underestimated support for the issue.
During Proposition 22 in the year 2000, the Field Poll consistently reported support to uphold marriage at around 50%, when in fact the measure won with a substantial 61% of votes at the ballot box on Election Day.
FR suspects that California voters’ feelings are more aligned with the findings of the recent L.A. Times poll, which showed support around 54%.
“The fact is that the majority of Californians support the definition of marriage as being between one man and one woman,” said Schubert. “Support for Proposition 8 is precisely where it needs to be at this point in the campaign.”
July 18th, 2008 at 12:00 am
The latest field poll says that the YES vote is at only 42% and the NO vote at 51% (margin of error +/- 4%). Even if you factor in the +10% for the yes side to counter the “understatement,” the support is quite thin.
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2278.pdf
Factor in the fact that unlike Prop. 22 (which would have kept the status quo), this initiative will TAKE AWAY what people now have a right to do. There will be enough people who, while they would not vote to impose same-gender marriage, would also not vote to take away what is already there.
After all, Prop. 8 supporters have to explain how the status quo when it comes to marriage is bad and must be taken away from some people?
Coupled with the massive pro-Obama turnout we are likely to see prop. 8 will likely fail…and at that point, Gay-rights activists will have won it all.
And Pollyanna thinking will not help the situation.
July 18th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Nice try, Mr. Rego, but I would say Pollyana thinking can run both ways.
If you don’t think Prop 8 is going to result in a MASSIVE turnout of just the sort of voter that homosexual activists DON’T WANT to show up at the polls, you are sadly mistaken.
I am seeing people get POLITICAL whom I never IN A MILLION YEARS would have dreamed would take any interest in politics. Any enthusiasm Obama may generate will be SWAMPED by the tide that is coming.
July 20th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Last month ccAdvertising of Virginia was surveying in CA and they add the question, “Do you agree that only marriage between one man and one woman should be legal and binding in America?” Pretty simple and straightforward, right? Well the results were handed to CRI and 56% said “Yes” and 43% said “No”. Having worked with ccAdvertising for years, I have always found them to be right on… can the same be said for the Field Poll?
July 21st, 2008 at 12:00 am
Frankly, same-gender marriage is becoming more and more accepted. The liberals who want to rewrite social mores and beliefs have done too good of a job framing the issue in a away that appeals to people. And people, such as I, who believe in traditional marriage ain’t doing so well in convincing younger people.
Young people ask “Why should we deny same-sex marriage? How does it hurt me?” Those who believe in the traditional definition of marriage don’t have a good response. Most people aren’t going to care about the fact that same-sex marriage isn’t about privacy, freedom, tolerance, &c. — it is about the lefts desire to mold and control society.
Obama, and the anti-GOP tilt of the election, will hurt prop. 8 far more then prop. 8 will hurt them.
July 21st, 2008 at 12:00 am
Mr. Rego:
Every published poll, except Field, shows Proposition 8 winning,
and by solid margins (including the L.A. Times and Survey USA).
Don’t give up!